PRECIOUS METALS | Gold May Trade Near $4,100 an Ounce This Year Under Base Case

The World Gold Council said gold prices could trade around $4,100 per ounce this year under its base-case scenario, with a volatility range of about plus or minus 5%. According to Jin10, the council released its 2026 Mid-Year Global Gold Market Outlook on July 1 and outlined three possible scenarios for the second half of the year, describing gold as a barometer of global macroeconomic conditions. The council said the current gold price level broadly aligns with market consensus expectations. It cited market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once in 2026, likely in October, and that the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank will also tighten policy. It also cited expectations that U.S. second-quarter inflation will peak near 3.9%. If this environment does not change materially, the council said gold could trade near $4,100 per ounce for the rest of the year. The council said gold could resume gains if geopolitical or economic conditions worsen or if interest-rate expectations shift. However, it added that a move to new highs would likely require sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown. On the downside, it listed a stronger U.S. dollar, larger-than-expected rate hikes, and a rebound in market risk appetite as key headwinds. It said sustained trading below $4,000 per ounce could trigger additional selling. Based on historical performance, the council added that a decline of more than 10% from current levels could prompt long-term investors in multiple regions to increase buying on dips.