CITIC Securities: Current AI Trade Resembles 2021 New-Energy Cycle More Than 2000 Dot-Com Boom

A CITIC Securities research note said the AI market rally since June 2025 looks more like the 2021 new-energy cycle than the 2000 dot-com cycle, according to 36Kr. The note said upstream AI-related names still have not seen a collapse in forward P/E multiples and earnings expectations are only starting to be revised up. It flagged four potential “peak” signals: a top in prices of the “least scarce” product (it compared 2021 electrolyte to today’s silicon wafers), broad downstream price hikes and cost complaints, higher frequency of overseas capex disclosures, and a sharp drop in positioning/crowding and market breadth. The report said late-cycle risk-reward could improve for upstream segments with low valuations and tight supply, and it currently prefers more downstream exposure. It highlighted silicon-based memory supply chains, gas turbine supply chains, optical modules, PCBs, and cloud vendors, as well as “carbon + silicon” computing-power metals, fluorochemicals, and phosphorus chemicals.