Polymarket Lists Prediction Market on U.S.-Iran Diplomatic Agreement Terms by December 31, 2026

Polymarket has listed a new prediction event focused on which provisions could be included in a U.S.-Iran diplomatic agreement by December 31, 2026. According to Odaily, the event breaks the potential agreement into several specific clauses for users to predict. The listed items include whether a non-Iran-led mechanism would be created for Iran reconstruction or economic development funding; whether Iran-controlled enriched uranium would be diluted or downgraded; and whether a uranium enrichment percentage cap lasting more than one year would be set. Other items include whether a cap of 5% or lower uranium enrichment lasting more than one year would be established; whether some or all enriched uranium would be surrendered to an entity not controlled by Iran; and whether a comprehensive moratorium on uranium enrichment for more than one year would be implemented. Odaily said the event will be resolved based on the official text of a formal written diplomatic instrument that is ultimately signed or formally adopted by both the United States and Iran. Odaily also reported that current U.S.-Iran negotiations are focused on ceasefire lines, the unfreezing of assets, and rules for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.