SpaceX and Tesla Merger Could Face Financial Challenges, Analysts Say

Market analysis suggests that if the merger between SpaceX and Tesla, driven by Elon Musk, proceeds, SpaceX may need to issue new shares equivalent to 94% of its current outstanding shares to acquire Tesla. This would increase the total share count to approximately 8 billion. According to Odaily, the financial logic of the transaction faces challenges as Tesla's GAAP net profit over the past 12 months has decreased from $15 billion in 2023 to $3.9 billion. Excluding regulatory credit income and Bitcoin gains, the core operating profit is about $2.3 billion. Analysts believe the transaction essentially involves using a highly valued asset to acquire another company with a similarly high valuation, with significant uncertainty remaining regarding its long-term profitability and cash flow performance. The merged company's valuation could reach $3.4 trillion, with SpaceX expected to be valued at $1.75 trillion and Tesla's current market value at approximately $1.65 trillion. Musk may leverage the high valuation from SpaceX's upcoming IPO to support Tesla, which is under performance pressure.