Bitcoin may be entering a new phase of outperformance against traditional assets after breaking out of its longest-ever stretch of underperformance against the S&P 500 — a 142-day period that ended in early May — according to Mark Connors, former global head of portfolio management at Credit Suisse and current chief investment officer at Risk Dimensions.
Speaking in an interview, Connors made a bold call at a moment when Bitcoin is trading near $76,000, ETF outflows have accelerated, and macro sentiment has turned sharply negative. His argument is not that the near-term environment is easy — it clearly isn't — but that Bitcoin has historically absorbed macro shocks earlier and harder than other assets before emerging first on the other side.
"I think bitcoin's underperformance versus markets is over," Connors said. "It's in the consolidation phase that has shifted into an outperformance phase."
Why bonds and equities face the bigger structural problem
Connors' core thesis rests on the view that persistent inflation and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment create a more damaging structural problem for bonds and equities than for Bitcoin. Traditional fixed income, long considered a defensive haven, is under sustained pressure as markets adjust to the reality that rate cuts are no longer the base case — with CME FedWatch now showing nearly 68% odds of rate hikes by December 2026.
In that environment, bonds lose value as yields rise, and equity valuations face compression as the discount rate applied to future earnings increases. Bitcoin, by contrast, has no duration risk and no earnings multiple to compress. Its value proposition as a scarce, non-sovereign asset becomes more attractive — not less — as fiat monetary systems face inflation pressure and bond markets struggle.
"Bitcoin, as it always does, takes it on the chin early, but then it always comes out first," Connors said, adding that Bitcoin could continue outperforming both equities and fixed income "as we grind through the straits of poor news and oil persistently being high."
Oil, inflation, and the technology counterweight
Connors tied the current macro environment directly to geopolitical tensions and structurally elevated energy prices — a dynamic that has defined 2026 since the US-Iran conflict began in February and sent oil surging 55%. Rather than viewing high oil as an unambiguous negative, Connors sees it as an accelerant for the technology adoption that ultimately counters inflationary pressure.
"The only way to punch through that inflationary pressure is through technology," he said. In his framework, AI and blockchain are becoming increasingly linked as businesses seek decentralized systems capable of supporting machine-driven transactions and automation at scale — a thesis that connects Bitcoin's long-term value proposition directly to the AI growth narrative that has driven equity market outperformance in recent months.
This framing echoes the agentic AI payments argument that has gained traction among crypto analysts — the idea that autonomous AI systems will default to crypto rails for payments because they cannot access traditional bank accounts, creating structural demand for Bitcoin and programmable digital assets as AI adoption scales.
Gold's run is ending, Bitcoin's resurgence is beginning
Connors drew an explicit parallel between the current environment and 2020, when gold initially outperformed in the early stages of the pandemic shock before Bitcoin began a multi-year resurgence that dramatically outpaced every traditional asset class. In his read, the same rotation is underway now.
"Gold has had its run," Connors said. "Bitcoin is now on its resurgence."
The comparison carries weight given gold's behavior in the current cycle. Gold surged to record highs near $3,500 per ounce earlier in 2026 as geopolitical risk and inflation fears drove safe-haven demand — the same dynamic that initially favored gold in early 2020. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin's current consolidation near $76,000 is not the beginning of a deeper bear leg but the base-building phase that precedes a sustained outperformance cycle against both gold and equities.
The 142-day underperformance streak in context
The 142-day stretch of Bitcoin underperformance against the S&P 500 that ended in early May was, according to Connors, the longest in Bitcoin's history. The fact that it ended — rather than extended indefinitely — is itself a signal in his framework. Historically, extended periods of Bitcoin underperformance have been followed by periods of sharp outperformance as the macro conditions that depressed relative performance shift.
The current setup combines several of those historical shift conditions simultaneously: a potential Iran peace deal that could deflate the oil premium, a new Fed chair whose rate intentions remain genuinely uncertain, a CLARITY Act advancing through Congress that could unlock institutional capital, and a strategic Bitcoin reserve bill that would formally recognize Bitcoin as a US national asset.
None of those catalysts guarantees the outcome Connors is projecting. But together they suggest that the macro and regulatory conditions for Bitcoin's next outperformance cycle are assembling — even if the timing of the move remains uncertain.
Weatherly
