The UAE's state-owned oil company ADNOC has expressed concerns over the timeline for resuming oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, even if the current Middle East conflict ends immediately. According to Jin10, ADNOC's CEO, Sultan Al Jaber, stated at an Atlantic Council event on Wednesday that full recovery of oil shipments through the strait might not occur until the first or second quarter of 2027. This prediction is among the most pessimistic from industry leaders, highlighting the long-term economic impact of the ongoing conflict with Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply, has been effectively controlled by Iran, leading to significant disruptions. The International Energy Agency has labeled this situation as the largest energy crisis in history. The closure of the strait has caused energy prices to surge, contributing to inflation and increasing fears of an economic recession.
Al Jaber noted that even if the conflict were to end tomorrow, it would take at least four months to restore oil transport to 80% of pre-war levels. The full restoration of oil shipments is projected to take much longer, extending into 2027.
Anais