Binance News Update | Hot CPI Lifts 50bp Fed Hike Odds to 15% and Sends Bitcoin Below $74,000 as Anthropic Sets IPO Range
US October CPI rose 0.4% month over month and core 0.3%, both above forecasts of 0.3% and 0.2%, with no year-over-year figure because of the 2025 shutdown data gap. Core landed exactly on Fed Governor Waller’s 0.3% threshold for a possible 50bp hike, lifting December 50bp odds to 15.3% from 1.1%. Bitcoin fell to $73,762 and stock futures turned negative, with ETFs losing $201M and IBIT in a seventh straight outflow session. Anthropic set its IPO range at $70-$78, targeting about $1T, or up to $1.4T fully diluted, with pricing expected November 18. Citi cut its Nvidia target to $285 from $315.US CPI Rises 0.4% in October, Hotter Than 0.3% ForecastUS consumer prices rose 0.4% month over month in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% expected and down from September’s 0.6%. There is no year-on-year figure because of the data gap from the 2025 government shutdown. CME FedWatch showed a 98.9% probability of a 25bp December hike before the release, so markets were already fully pricing it.Hot US CPI Lifts Odds of 50 Basis Point Fed Hike to 15%, Sending Bitcoin Below $74,000 and Stock Futures LowerOctober CPI rose 0.4% month over month against 0.3% expected, and core rose 0.3% against 0.2%, per the BLS. Headline slowed from September’s 0.6%. The BLS published no year-over-year figures because of the October 2025 shutdown disruption, and cited tariffs, energy costs and the data center boom as price pressures. This is the last CPI report before the December 8-9 meeting. Waller had said the Fed might need a 50bp hike if core rose 0.3% or more, and core hit that level.CME FedWatch for December: +25bp fell to 84.7% from 98.9%, +50bp rose to 15.3% from 1.1%, hold stayed at 0%. By January, odds of 50bp cumulative hikes rose to 48.8% from 34.8%, overtaking 25bp at 43.9%, with a 7.4% chance of 75bp. Futures for all three major US indexes briefly fell sharply and turned negative after Monday’s rebound (S&P 500’s best day since April 8, Nasdaq +2.7%). Bitcoin fell below $74,000 to $73,762, down 1.31% over 24 hours. US spot bitcoin ETFs lost $201M Monday, with IBIT posting a seventh straight outflow session.Anthropic Sets IPO Range at $70–$78, Targeting Up to $1.4 Trillion Fully Diluted as Annualized Revenue Hits $81 BillionAnthropic plans to sell 825 million Class A shares on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, targeting about $1T, or up to $1.4T fully diluted. Pricing is expected Wednesday, November 18, with trading from November 19. Annualized revenue reached about $81B as of October 31, up $10B from September 30 (+14%, calculated); nine-month revenue was $33.24B. The offering raises about $57.75B-$64.35B, plus existing holders selling 23,648,646 shares and a $26B private placement at the IPO price with Google, Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, Micron, Microsoft and TSMC, for about $90.4B in total per Yahoo Finance. The range sits below the $1.5T-$2T discussed in recent weeks, and the top end is about 45% above May’s $965B round. That is roughly 12x and 17x October annualized revenue (calculated). Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead 22 underwriters, and the roadshow runs this week.Citi Cuts Nvidia Price Target to $285 From $315Citi lowered its Nvidia target to $285 from $315 on November 10, a 9.5% cut, a day after downgrading US and global tech stocks to neutral on weakening AI sentiment. Nvidia fell more than 4% pre-market Monday after its board opened an investigation into reports about CEO Jensen Huang.ADP Weekly Estimate Shows US Private Payrolls Rising 19,750 in Week to October 24US private employers added an average of 19,750 jobs per week in the week ending October 24, up from 16,750 the previous week, per ADP’s preliminary estimate. The data follows the official October report of 165,000 jobs.
