NVIDIA Earnings Preview: AI Demand Faces Another Test as Revenue Nears $109 Billion
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is scheduled to report its third-quarter fiscal 2027 results on November 17, 2026, after the market close, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. ET. Investors are watching whether strong demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure can sustain the chipmaker’s rapid growth. Expectations remain high as major technology companies continue investing heavily in AI data centers, putting NVIDIA’s revenue growth, data center performance, and forward guidance under close scrutiny.
Consensus Estimates & Expectations
Revenue Estimate: According to analyst estimates compiled by Charles Schwab as of November 4, NVIDIA is expected to report revenue of approximately $109.2 billion, up 91.5% from $57.01 billion a year earlier. Broader consensus figures cluster in a similar range of roughly $108.8–$109.2 billion. This sits near the upper end of the company’s own guidance of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2% (approximately $105.8–$110.2 billion). The guide assumes no data-center compute revenue from China. Hitting the midpoint would represent roughly 12% sequential growth from the prior quarter’s $96.2 billion.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted earnings per share are forecast at $2.48, representing year-over-year growth of 90.5% from $1.30 in the year-ago quarter. Other compilations place the consensus near $2.47–$2.49. In the second quarter of fiscal 2027, NVIDIA delivered adjusted EPS of $2.22, beating expectations.
Data Center & Blackwell Demand: Data Center remains the dominant driver and is expected to account for the vast majority of revenue. In the prior quarter it reached a record $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year and more than 92% of total sales. Blackwell Ultra continued to ramp strongly, particularly with hyperscalers.
The next-generation Vera Rubin platform began production shipments in August 2026 and is expected to contribute roughly 20% of Data Center revenue in the third quarter. Management has described purchase orders from major hyperscalers, AI clouds, and system makers, with deployments already underway at partners including CoreWeave, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, and others. Hyperscale customers and the AI Clouds, Industrial, and Enterprise (ACIE) segment both showed robust sequential growth in the prior period. Broader industry data points to continued heavy capital spending by the largest cloud providers, supporting the near-term demand picture even as supply constraints persist.
Analyst Views on the Stock
Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish on NVIDIA despite recent share-price weakness and governance questions. As of early November 2026, the consensus rating is Strong Buy or Buy, with roughly 50–60 analysts covering the stock and only a handful of Holds and essentially no Sell ratings. Average 12-month price targets cluster in the $320–$340 range, implying substantial upside from recent trading levels near $178–180.
Notable targets include Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon at $400 (maintained Outperform), Bank of America at $350, RBC Capital at $330, Citi at $315, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley near $300. Most analysts argue that underlying AI infrastructure demand and product cycles (Blackwell Ultra and the Vera Rubin ramp) remain intact and that any near-term distraction is unlikely to derail shipments or the multi-year growth trajectory. A small minority have turned more cautious, with at least one firm downgrading to Hold citing potential management turmoil, but the overall stance is that the stock’s risk-reward has become more attractive after the pullback.
Key Headwinds & Market Overhang
Several factors are weighing on sentiment heading into the print. Gross margins are guided to approximately 74% (plus or minus 50 basis points), down from 75% in the second quarter, with management signaling further pressure in the fourth quarter (potentially bottoming near 71–72%) due to rising memory and component costs.
Supply remains a constraint rather than demand. Long-term supply and capacity commitments rose sharply in the prior quarter, and the company continues to describe itself as supply-limited even while guiding for strong sequential growth.
Geopolitical and regulatory issues form a persistent overhang. The outlook explicitly assumes zero China data-center compute revenue amid ongoing export controls. Broader political and policy uncertainty has contributed to recent stock weakness.
Recent reporting has also drawn attention to personal and governance matters involving CEO Jensen Huang. Major news outlets have reported that Huang admitted to an extramarital affair with Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive whom U.S. intelligence concluded was a Chinese intelligence asset. NVIDIA’s board launched an independent investigation into whether he was the target of a foreign intelligence effort, while a shareholder lawsuit alleges inadequate disclosure of related risks. The board has expressed confidence in Huang’s leadership and stated it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised; Huang has said he supports the probe. Analysts have noted that the episode heightens long-standing key-man risk concerns given Huang’s central role and the absence of a clear successor, though most still see it as a temporary overhang rather than a fundamental demand problem.
NVIDIA shares have declined substantially from recent highs in the weeks leading up to the report, reflecting a combination of these concerns and high expectations. While the company has a strong track record of beating its own guidance and analyst estimates, the bar is elevated, and forward commentary on Vera Rubin ramp, margins, supply, and the durability of AI infrastructure spending will likely determine the market’s reaction.
What to Expect in NVIDIA’s Earnings Report
Revenue Growth: Revenue is expected to reach approximately $109.2 billion, up 91.5% year over year.
Earnings Performance: Adjusted EPS is forecast at $2.48, nearly doubling from a year earlier.
Data Center Demand: Investors will look for continued growth in AI chip sales, particularly Blackwell Ultra deployments.
Vera Rubin Ramp: The market will assess early contributions from the next-generation platform and its shipment outlook.
Gross Margins: Rising memory and component costs could put pressure on margins, with further declines expected in the coming quarter.
China Exposure: Investors will watch for any updates on export restrictions and the outlook for data center sales in China.
Forward Guidance: Management’s commentary on supply capacity, hyperscaler spending, and AI infrastructure demand will be critical to the stock’s reaction.
