With the US government shutdown nearing its end, are Bitcoin's good days about to return?

Article Introduction

A 40-day government shutdown has finally ended, and trillions of dollars in frozen liquidity are about to be released.

Today, the cryptocurrency market saw a long-awaited glimmer of hope.

On November 10th, the US Senate formally passed a new continuing appropriations billThis bill will provide funding to the government until November 30th to end the government shutdown. All votes have been counted: 60 votes in favor and 40 votes against.

As news broke that the US Senate was moving forward with a bill to end the government shutdown, Bitcoin prices rebounded strongly, regaining the key $106,000 mark. This reflects the market's positive response to the impending break in the US political deadlock. Since the historic shutdown of the US federal government, global financial markets have been under continuous pressure. In an environment of tightening liquidity, Bitcoin often reacts first. This isn't because it's fragile, but because it's highly sensitive. Over the past 30 days, wallets held by "long-term holders" (those who have held Bitcoin for more than 155 days) have net sold approximately 405,000 Bitcoins, representing 2% of the circulating supply. Based on an average price of $105,000 during this period, this equates to over $42 billion in cash. Simultaneously, institutional funds are also withdrawing. IBIT, the world's largest Bitcoin spot ETF managed by BlackRock and holding a 45% market share, saw a net outflow of $403 million in the week of October 28 to November 3, accounting for 50.4% of the total market outflow of $799 million. The liquidation data was even more severe. In the first week of November, Bitcoin briefly fell below $99,000, with over $1.3 billion in liquidations across the network in 24 hours, resulting in nearly 342,000 people being liquidated. The root of all this lies in Bitcoin's extremely high sensitivity to liquidity. A Citi report points out that Bitcoin's weekly price changes show a synchronous correlation with changes in US bank reserves. When bank reserves decrease, Bitcoin tends to weaken. However, as the US Senate moves forward with legislation to end the government shutdown, global market sentiment has regained optimism, and Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies have seen strong gains. Data shows that as of today (November 10, 2025), the price of Bitcoin has climbed to $106,236.2, a 4.18% increase in the past 24 hours, with a market capitalization of $2.12 trillion. Meanwhile, Ethereum also performed strongly, rising 5.33% to $3,604. The end of the US government shutdown means that fiscal policy will resume normal operations, and the US Treasury's General Account (TGA) will inject liquidity back into the market. This is crucial for the cryptocurrency market, as liquidity is a core driver of asset prices. It's worth noting that this Bitcoin rally is a continuation of the weekend's gains. Market analysts point out that the surge in Bitcoin prices in November 2025 was primarily driven by a combination of macroeconomic changes and institutional adoption, despite the cryptocurrency's weakness in early October due to liquidity constraints. While market sentiment has clearly improved, rationality is still necessary. Historical data shows that market performance after government shutdowns often exhibits a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" pattern. Bitcoin has now climbed back above $106,000. Whether it can continue to break through previous highs depends on the actual implementation of policies and the pace of institutional fund inflows. In the long term, the resumption of normal government operations will accelerate the improvement of the cryptocurrency regulatory framework. Historical experience shows that the market typically experiences a strong rebound within 3-6 months after a government shutdown ends. After the 2019 shutdown ended, Bitcoin surged from a low of $3,400 to $13,800 within six months, an increase of over 300%. Regarding this current market rally, institutions such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup predict that once governments reopen, pent-up liquidity could push Bitcoin above $110,000 or even $120,000. This optimistic prediction is based on the historical pattern of liquidity repatriation and the unprecedented scale of the current TGA. A clear regulatory environment will help attract more traditional financial institutions to the cryptocurrency space, providing continuous liquidity support to the market. The accelerated adoption by institutions will be a core driver of the long-term price increase of mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin.