Will Dogecoin surge 7 months after Bitcoin halving?

Author: Zoltan Vardai, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

While the price of Dogecoin has fallen over the past month, historical data suggests that it may begin to rebound to a new all-time high about seven months after the Bitcoin halving.

Will the price of Dogecoin rise in November?

The price of Dogecoin has fallen nearly 8% on the daily chart and more than 18% over the past month, but it is consistent with the price trend of the previous cycle, which suggests that it may be heading towards a new all-time high.

During the last crypto bull run, Dogecoin began to rise in May 2020, seven months after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, according to TradingView.

Dogecoin/USDT, 1-month chart. Source: TradingView

On May 8, 2021, a year after the 2020 Bitcoin halving, Dogecoin price rose to a new all-time high of $0.73. Dogecoin is currently down 73% from its previous all-time high.

If this pattern repeats, Dogecoin price will reach a new all-time high in April 2025. However, technical analysis is difficult to apply to memecoins because their value is speculative.

Umoja Labs founder Robby Greenfield said that Memecoin is a "crazy market" driven purely by greed, with little understanding of high risks.

However, Greenfield expects some memecoins to maintain high valuations. He noted:

“As exchanges like Coinbase introduce memecoin futures markets, some of these tokens, like DOGE and PEPE, will continue to gain legitimacy. Given the large communities behind these assets, they will likely remain cryptocurrencies with higher market caps than tokens backed by most legitimate projects.”

Memecoin Provides Fairer Market Access?

Many cryptocurrencies launched in 2024 with high fully diluted valuations (FDVs) and large venture capitalist (VC) allocations, prompting some analysts to argue that “cash-starved VCs” are bad for crypto in the long run.

As a result, VALR COO Gianluca Sacco said retail investors may view memecoins without a VC allocation as the fairest market opportunity. He said:

“These tokens are seen as the fairest opportunity to participate in the cryptocurrency market right now, and it’s interesting to participate in the community around them… Many people are anxious about the high FDV, low issuance tokens that have historically been offered through token projects, which have provided deep discounts to insiders and venture capitalists at the expense of retail users.”

Other memecoins such as Pepe, Shiba Inu, Dogwifhat (WIF) and Floki (FLOKI) have all seen double-digit gains over the past week, according to data from TradingView.

Pepe, Shib, Wif, Floki, 7-day chart. Source: TradingView

However, Dodo Chief Marketing Officer Diane Dai said this only indicates a temporary surge in interest in certain memecoins, rather than a revival of the memecoin "alt season." Dai noted:

"Despite the double-digit price increase, trading volume remains low, indicating insufficient market liquidity. The large fluctuations in Memecoin's price are not enough to prove that investors are pouring into the memecoin market after the halving event."

Memecoin's daily trading volume fell by more than 17% to $6.58 billion in the past 24 hours. According to CoinMarketCap data, memecoin's market value fell by 5.8% to $52.8 billion.

Top meme coins by market cap. Source: CoinMarketCap