Why people still think Bitcoin will die

Author: Michael J. Casey, coindesk Translation: Shan Oppa, Golden Finance

One ​​of the most compelling properties of Bitcoin is its unstoppability. So why do so many people in a recent survey think it will fail by 2024?

Want some proof of the gap in understanding between “normal people” and cryptocurrency enthusiasts? Just look at the results of a Deutsche Bank survey of 2,000 retail customers last week.

The most shocking finding is not that one-third of respondents believe Bitcoin will fall below $20,000 by the end of the year. You know, this is less than half of its current price, and far less than Anthony Scaramucci’s predicted target of $170,000. Scaramucci’s forecast and other bullish views believe that after the next halving in April this year, ETF-driven demand will hit increasingly scarce supply, pushing prices higher.

What really makes me sit up is a question about Bitcoin’s survival: more people think Bitcoin will disappear in the next few years than believe it There are still many people who will always exist.

Knowing my readership, I’m sure many of you are shaking your heads right now with “Bitcoin is dead” flashing through your mind old joke. As this website, which documents Bitcoin death reports, wittily points out, Bitcoin has “died” 475 times since 2010.

However, the real joke is ourselves. After all these years, countless counterfactual prophecies have proven the naysayers foolish, and it’s certainly proven that despite Bitcoin’s impressive post-financial crisis record of the best investment returns in 13 years, people still think it’s about to disappear This shows that there are huge mistakes in publicity and communication in this industry. We didn’t really explain what Bitcoin was and let “ordinary people” really understand it.

Misunderstanding

I admit that, like many people, I have a lot of doubts about the general public’s understanding of bits. Frustrated and irritated by coin misunderstandings. This mentality will only widen the gap of understanding, making it more difficult for us to gain the trust of "ordinary people" like Amin, and help him understand this complex and unfamiliar concept.

When I saw the Deutsche survey results, my knee-jerk reaction was: Come on, really? Will Bitcoin die this year? How on earth will it disappear? Who will turn it off? Bitcoin is open source code and no one person or company has the switch to turn it off. Do you mean that everyone involved will act collectively to make it disappear? Do you really think that the thousands of people who have invested time and energy into this - miners, developers, investors, users - who have absolutely no coordination with each other, can collectively abandon it at the same time? Well, okay...

The reason why Bitcoin death theory is so annoying is because it directly ties into the core value proposition of Bitcoin - it cannot be shut down - —Contradictory. In a world where anything can be controlled by governments, banks, online platforms or hackers, unstoppability is a powerful concept. We have an incredible invention: a mathematically based, immutable value transfer system that automatically generates a new block of transaction records every ten minutes when the clock ticks, completely without any interference or review. People should really be amazed by it.

But this is not the case. "A Ming" doesn't take this seriously

This may be because the concept is too abstract. What tangible benefit does it have for him? He had dollars, and they more or less met the need. While he may have been dissatisfied with the government, he accepted its monetary system. Contemplating how an uncensored, depoliticized form of value exchange could transcend systems of national dependence on a global scale and underpin human sovereignty made no sense in his day-to-day life.

Distrust

"Ordinary people" Amin needs trust, but unfortunately Yes, he didn’t get that from the cryptocurrency community.

If someone were to sell him something he couldn't understand, Amin would set a higher standard for trusting that person. When the behavior of the people associated with the item confirms his biases, he concludes that they—and what they are promoting—cannot be trusted.

All the noise, the bragging, the "fly to the moon" and "just keep being poor" memes, the flaunting of wealth, the obsession... whatever. Whether it is reasonable or not makes it harder for Amin to believe in Bitcoin.

What we need is simple, empathetic communication.