Why is the Op super chain very awesome but currently does not have Alpha opportunities?

Author: BITWU.ETH

Although I currently hold a position in$Op, and Op has risen sharply, I may want to give OP a position. Friends who have it and want to earn a hundred times on OP, pour some cold water:

OP can make money, but not a lot of money!

From my investment perspective, span>$Op You can make money during the outbreak period, so when the Cancun upgrade and the L2 concept started to be hyped, Op and Arb were very good target of selection.

But if you pursue the imaginary hundredfold return, or become a long-term Holder to pursue high returns in exchange of time and space, OP is not cost-effective, and it is not With Alpha opportunities, you can change your target!

1. The logic that the currency circle must understand: good projects do not equal Alpha opportunities:

This article mainly explains my views on the later stage of OP. I personally think that OP is indeed very good, but purely from the perspective of OP tokens, it does not have the possibility of high-fold growth. This is very interesting.Many people think that if the project is very good, the token must be very good. In fact, sometimes this is Going in the opposite direction.

For example, early DYDX, the project was a top dex at that stage, but when the project did not empower the tokens well, the value of the tokens in the early days has not been rising. Another example is ARB, which is currently in the same situation!

So a good project does not mean rapid growth! The currency circle must understand this truth.

Here are some of my personal views:

In investing, we often fall into a misunderstanding. A project equals a good investment, and I think the OP that everyone has been talking about recently is just like this. It is a good project, but the OP is not a good investment

2. The relevant logic of the Op project will be discussed in six aspects:

1. First, let’s talk about the basics of Op Super Chain

First, let everyone know about the Super Chain through OK’s video: https:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHgbh3rGcmw

Op this link In fact, the development is relatively weak, far less dazzling than Arb, and it is in a mediocre position. However, the development of OP Stack shows Op's different strategic vision. It can be said that at the technical level, Arb is far ahead of Op. At the Tao level, Op But it's a few blocks behind Arb.

OP Stack can be understood as one-click sending L2 The toolbox greatly simplifies the construction of L2 chains. These decentralized L2 chains developed based on Op Stack share security, communication layer and open source technology Stack, forming the vision of Op super chain.

2. The Op super chain inheritsThe vision of Cosmos

Played CosmosFriends of the ecology should have this feeling. The vision of Cosmos is being realized by the Op super chain. Cosmos is also a one-click chain. Based on the same framework standard, IBC will connect all chains. , to achieve seamless interoperability among various chains.

Cosmos has already achieved all this, but lacks With the help of the market, it was eventually absorbed by L2 of the ETH system. This is also the leading charm of ETH. The trial and error cost of innovation in other chains is extremely high. Once the experiment is successful, the fruits will also be stolen by the ETH system. It can be said that other chains are all ETH systems. Experimental field.

3. BASE of Op Super Chain

At present, the development of Op Super Chain is beyond expectations, especially the BASE chain, the accumulation of Base The number of unique addresses is even higher than that of the OP main network. Both the summer dog fever and the popular http://Friend.tech are from the BASE chain. It is not an exaggeration to say that the BASE chain is "mother-killing" in terms of momentum, that is, BASE is based on Op Stack was developed, but its development has surpassed the original owner Op.

4. L2’s “matricide” phenomenon

"matricide" "The phenomenon first appeared in the Cosmos ecology. The market value of Luna exceeds the market value of ATOM. Luna is a chain developed based on Cosmos, and Atom is the Cosmos hub token. The "matricide" phenomenon is not a bad thing. It just shows that the ecology is very dynamic, and all the ecological participants have a chance to overpower the emperor. The Base chain has begun to have the potential of "matricide", which just proves the strategic success of the Op super chain. Op provides a one-click L2 platform, and all the infrastructure is done. Well, each Op sub-chain focuses on business and innovation, so as to show its magical power and let a hundred flowers bloom.

In addition to BASE, Op super chains also include Zora, PGN, Mode, DeBank, etc., more and more players will join the Op Super Chain in the future. Strategically, with the enrichment of the Op Super Chain ecology, a network effect will eventually be formed.

5. Network effect of Op super chain

Op provides chain issuance services and various underlying infrastructure, attracting various forces to come here to launch L2 chain. The more participants settle in, the gathering of financial talents will further promote the improvement of the underlying services, and attract more forces to settle in, eventually forming It has created a powerful network effect, which is the moat of the Op super chain. Once this trend is formed, it is likely to mean the end of the L2 war, and the Op super chain will dominate the L2 ecology. Forming network effects, building a moat, and dominating the L2 ecosystem may be the ultimate strategic goal of the Op super chain.

All of the above are talking about the good side. Let’s mainly talk about the main factors why Op does not have a high growth effect:

Why do Op tokens not have Alpha opportunities?

Of course, Op as an investment target has consistently outperformed Inflation is not a big problem, but the so-called Alpha opportunity here is excess return, which is 10 times in the stock market and 100 times or even higher in the currency circle, similar to ETH and AXS.

Let’s talk about the conclusion first, using ETH as the anchor , Op’s return is only slightly more than Beta’s return (market return), and there is no excess return. Let’s talk about the specific logic. There are two main logics:

1. Op token empowerment problem

This is also the problem of all L2 token empowerment. First, the security layer grabs most of the benefits, and the security of the Op super chain The layer is ETH, and the premise of L2 is based on the security of L1. Therefore, no matter how L2 designs the economic model, the majority of the interests (belonging to ETH) will never be moved, so there is only a part of the remaining operational empowerment space for L2 chain tokens. . There is no way, L2’s prerequisites are like this. The empowerment of L2 chain tokens is like a child who is born with insufficient development. No matter how he acquires nutrition, he will always be limited.

We have finished talking about the innate problem, let’s talk about the day-to-day optimization part The acquired part can be divided into asset attributes and functional attributes:

In terms of asset attributes, Op tokens currently do not have them. Looking directly at the LP trading pairs of DEX, they are mainly ETH and various stable coins. In this regard, they are even inferior to ATOM. ATOM also has empowerment problems in the Cosmos ecosystem, but ATOM It is the main asset in the DEX of the sub-chain, and the matching volume of the LP pool is very high.

In terms of functional attributes, Op tokens are not very Maybe as the Gas currency of the L2 chain, this is not a technical problem, but a problem of user experience. Once the Op token is forced to be a Gas currency, competitors will laugh crazy, and may even be boycotted by the ETH community. Shared sorter empowerment has many variables. Of course, there is also the most mentioned shared sorter. Users can use Op tokens as pledges to become sorters and charge fees for their services. This is currently the best Op token empowerment solution, but there are too many variables in between. The first is the conflict of interest. As early as 2021, the Op was talking about a decentralized sorter. Why has it not been implemented for so long? It is really technically difficult, maybe, but it is more likely to be a trade-off in interests and centralized sorting. The income rights of the equipment belong entirely to the project party itself. Why should this income right be given to everyone? Secondly, whether Op tokens are empowered or not is not directly related to the ecology. The ecology needs to develop. Look at the BASE chain, because the L2 chain does not need to issue coins (critical attack), and the core demand for issuance of coins is still For the purpose of early financing, everyone did not think about how to design the model and solve the empowerment problem after the currency is issued.

When will the decentralized sorter be launched? ? Two situations: 1. Because of the direct risk events caused by the centralized sorter 2. Other L2s have launched decentralized sorters, forcing the Op. Otherwise, it is a bit unrealistic for the Op project team to consciously put down the golden rice bowl in their hands, and it is also unrealistic. Not in line with human nature.

2. Op valuation is overexploited by the primary market

You can carefully study the growth of Op's circulation market value and Op's price chart this year. You will definitely be surprised. Op has been bombarded with various big moves this year. Why the token performance is mediocre? On the one hand, it is the market environment restrictions, but if you look carefully Looking at the circulating market value of Op, you will be surprised. It turns out that the circulating market value of Op tokens has doubled five times this year. The circulating market value has grown rapidly, but the token price is languishing. It can only be one thing, that is, the new token. Released at an ultra-high rate, a large number of new Op tokens several times the current number in circulation enter the market.

This is another Op token unknown to the public secret, so it is very necessary for everyone to look at the FDV (full market value). The current FDV of Op is 5.4 billion US dollars, and the circulating market value is 1.1 billion.

You can ignore FDV in the short term, but if you If you want to hoard Ops for a long time, you must look at FDV instead of just looking at the circulating market value, because most of the Ops are waiting to be released into the market, which will naturally sacrifice the long-term price of Ops, and this is a slow job with a dull knife, done unknowingly. , so investors who have been hoarding Op for a long time and want to get ultra-high odds should take a good look at the FDV of Op. If you still think there are excess odds based on the FDV, then you can bet on high odds for a long time. Otherwise, If you are interested, just take advantage of the Beta benefits, because you came to the wrong venue!