Viewpoint: BTC has not reached the top of the cycle yet, and the current decline is a mid-term correction

Author: Chris Burniske, Placeholder Partner; Compiler: 0xjs@黄金财经

I hear people talking about capitulation everywhere these days. Other people's capitulation is your opportunity.

None of the key moments in cryptocurrency are easy. At the bottom, there is always talk of lower. During the fork, there is always talk of public chain destruction.

We now find ourselves in another not-so-easy moment. If this makes you emotional, it's okay, sit back and feel the emotion, observe it, and then decide what to do with it. As long as you have patience, you can succeed...

While there is always a risk of falling, I still believe that this is a mid-term bull market correction and we have not seen the "cycle top" yet. BTC falling will not change this view. If you are hesitant, it is unlikely to be a good idea to sell here - because if you sell here, it also tells me that you are easily marginalized on the way up.

The worst thing is to just sit on the sidelines and don't even look at the price if it helps, and you won't do anything. If you have any dry powder left, add some here or there if things are really appealing to you, or when you're feeling the worst. Not financial advice, just sharing my two cents.

In my opinion, altcoins lead BTC, and BTC leads stocks. Stocks may still have some turbulence, but remember: BTC and crypto assets are the fastest horses in finance, both down and up. If the stock market gets weak enough, measures will be taken to avoid any major or systemic weakness, because Trump's favorite scoreboard is the stock market - and crypto assets will feel those measures most acutely.

If you exit crypto because of fear or wanting to be too cute, you will get whiplash on the other side. Don't listen to those traders who are always perfect - they are liars. People who make big money rarely brag about how much money they made.

I will always make mistakes, but the key for me has always been to maintain a large allocation to multi-decade growth stories. In a sense, I've always partially followed the herd, while keeping some reserves in the lifeboat when things were good (read: taking profits the next time you felt like showing off).

Liquidity injections, rate adjustments, and big macro aside, it's an incredibly exciting time to be a blockchain right now. They're finally getting the (international) respect they deserve, and all sorts of powerful teams are working on projects that will weave blockchain applications more deeply (and seamlessly) into the fabric of society. It wasn't until the last year that institutions actually got the seal of approval from Uncle Sam.

All of this will take time - stick with the magic money BTC, friends.