US, UK, and Japan interest rate hikes: BTC's counter-trend rise and profit-taking.

This week, the central banks of the US, UK, and Japan raised interest rates as expected. High interest rates and high bond yields continue to exert macroeconomic pressure on risk assets, but BTC still rebounded against the trend on Friday, rising 5.14% to $81,234. However, the continuity of funds in the spot and ETF markets was insufficient, and the sharp rise in the latter part of the week was mainly driven by high leverage funds in the futures market, weakening the quality of the rebound. At the same time, the reduction of long-term holdings and the increase in exchange balances indicate that potential selling pressure has increased. Overall, it is difficult to determine whether a stable increase in funds has been established. Whether the market can continue to rise depends on whether spot and ETF funds can achieve continuous net inflows for several days and effectively absorb the supply selling pressure; if ETFs turn to outflows again or key moving averages are broken, the market will face the risk of a correction. This week, the three major central banks in the US, UK, and Japan raised interest rates as expected, and macroeconomic and financial conditions continue to constrain risk assets. The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a 25 basis point rate hike, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75-4.00%, with a median policy rate forecast of 4.1% at the end of 2026, still favoring further rate hikes this year. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield briefly broke through around 5%, closing at a high on Friday. The simultaneous rise in cash yield thresholds and long-term financing costs makes BTC price expansion more dependent on sustained marginal demand than on valuation revisions driven by easing expectations. Inflation and demand data do not support a rapid policy shift. US August CPI rose 3.4% year-on-year, core CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, and PPI rose 5.4% year-on-year; the latest released July overall and core PCE both rose 0.2% month-on-month. Core inflation has not accelerated across the board, but price pressures on the production side remain strong. The unemployment rate was 4.1% during the same period, and nominal retail sales rose 1.2% month-on-month, indicating that demand remains resilient, and the constraints of high interest rates may continue. It is important to note that policy tightening does not equate to a shortage of funds in the banking system, nor is it sufficient to prove an overall credit contraction. Therefore, what can be confirmed this week is that the opportunity cost of holding risky assets has increased. The BTC rebound cannot be interpreted as a failure of macroeconomic constraints, nor should policy tightening be directly equated with an inevitable decline. Following the interest rate hike, the three major US stock indices showed mixed performance. The Nasdaq, which had previously fallen significantly, rose 0.72%, while the resilient Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.69%, indicating that funds were merely moving between sectors without a significant outflow. Gold also initially fell before rising, gaining slightly by 0.69% over the week. According to eMerge IS data, BTC rose from $77,263 to $81,234 this week, an increase of 5.14%, with a low of $74,888 and a high of $81,925. Spot trading volume increased by 18.54% week-on-week, and the price rose above the 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating improved short-term momentum. However, the 90-day moving average remains below the 200-day moving average, and the trend across all timeframes has not yet fully strengthened. This week, the failure of the CLARITY Act vote, coupled with interest rate hikes, caused BTC to briefly retrace to $76,000, but Friday's surge ultimately masked the previous weakness. However, the inflow of funds was not smooth, with the return concentrated in the latter part of the week, lacking continuity. The US BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $159.9 million on Monday, a combined net outflow of $746.3 million on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a combined net inflow of $592.5 million on Thursday and Friday, with a particularly strong inflow of approximately $433 million on Friday, ultimately driving a nearly 5% single-day price surge. The total net inflow for the week was only about $6.1 million, close to net balance. The buying in the latter part of the week mainly filled the previous redemption gap and cannot be considered a confirmation of sustained incremental demand. Stablecoin supply increased slightly by approximately $127 million during the same period. The supply side shows signs of active old token holdings and accumulated tokens on exchanges being sold off. Long-term holders maintained 25,217 BTC over the week, while short-term holders increased by 20,309 BTC, and the exchange balance increased by approximately 7,784 BTC. This aligns with the scenario of some long-term holders re-entering circulation and an increase in potential tradable supply. Profitability metrics further define the nature of the clearing: the overall market MVRV is 1.52, while the long-term and short-term MVRVs are 1.65 and 1.13 respectively, and the long-term SOPR is 1.21. Based on this snapshot, the overall token pool is in a floating profit, and the spent long-term tokens have generally realized a profit. Therefore, this week is closer to profit-taking during a rebound than an overall loss-making surrender by long-term holders. It's worth noting that with Friday's sharp price rebound back to $81,000, overall profits approached 20%, and short-term traders, who had made substantial profits, sold off 23,717 contracts in a single day, totaling over 110,000 for the week, a significant increase from the previous week. In the derivatives market, the average daily trading volume of perpetual contracts increased by 25.40% week-on-week, exceeding the growth rate of spot trading volume, indicating increased trading participation. Specifically, perpetual contract exposure increased by over $5.5 billion on Friday alone, with funding rates soaring to an extremely high level of 0.009. Friday's price increase, besides being driven by spot ETFs, was largely driven by the futures market. This significantly weakened the quality of the price increase. On September 17th, BTC perpetual contract exposure surged by over $5.5 billion. This week's market movement can be largely attributed to a surprise attack launched by leveraged long positions and ETF funds following the interest rate hike. Despite rising macro financing costs, BTC's ability to rebound with increased volume indicates effective support within the price range. However, ETF funds remained largely balanced throughout the week, while the decrease in long-term supply and the increase in exchange balances suggest that the rise is simultaneously activating potential sellers. Whether the rally can continue depends on whether new demand can sustainably absorb this supply, rather than just a concentrated inflow on Friday. Previously, we emphasized that the verification of whether a new cycle has begun is still ongoing. The core price levels to watch remain around $76,700 and $72,000. Whether these levels can be maintained above, amidst profit-taking and high constraints, remains the main criterion for determining whether a new cycle has begun. Looking ahead, a continued rebound first requires verification from both capital and supply: ETFs need to shift from concentrated inflows to sustained net inflows over multiple trading days; spot market volume must be maintained; exchange-traded shares must no longer accumulate continuously; and long-term profit-taking must be absorbed without causing a significant price decline. If these conditions occur simultaneously, even if the macroeconomy has not yet shifted to easing, BTC may continue its recovery through more stable spot market support. The risk scenario is that ETFs experience renewed and continuous outflows, exchange supply continues to increase, long-term profit-taking intensifies, and spot trading weakens while derivatives positions become crowded. If the price further falls below the 30-day moving average and the rebound fails to recover, the foundation for this round of recovery will be significantly weakened.