Polymarket is reportedly raising $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation, with an investment firm linked to Donald Trump Jr. expected to emerge as one of the prediction market’s biggest backers.

According to people familiar with the matter cited by The Wall Street Journal, 1789 Capital, where Trump Jr. is a partner, plans to invest roughly $300 million in Polymarket as part of the new funding round. The deal would bring 1789 Capital’s total investment in the blockchain-based prediction market to around $500 million.

The reported valuation would place Polymarket just below its main US rival, Kalshi, which was recently valued at approximately $22 billion, highlighting how quickly the prediction-market sector has expanded despite intensifying regulatory scrutiny.

Polymarket closes the valuation gap

The reported investment represents a dramatic increase from Polymarket’s earlier fundraising ambitions.

In April, Polymarket was reportedly seeking approximately $400 million at a valuation of around $15 billion. The latest reported $21 billion valuation would represent a substantial jump in just a few months, bringing the platform much closer to Kalshi’s market standing.

Polymarket already counts Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, among its largest disclosed investors. ICE reported in July that it had invested a combined $1.6 billion in Polymarket preferred shares, with those holdings carrying a value of approximately $2 billion as of June 30.

The latest funding would further strengthen Polymarket’s balance sheet as it expands its prediction-market business and competes for dominance in a rapidly growing sector.

Billion-dollar funding meets regulatory pressure

The fundraising comes at a particularly consequential moment for prediction markets.

Polymarket and Kalshi have increasingly found themselves caught between federal regulators and state authorities over whether event contracts should be treated as federally regulated financial products or as gambling.

More than a dozen US states have taken legal action against Polymarket, Kalshi or both over sports-related contracts. Regulators and authorities in several countries have also moved to restrict or block access to Polymarket.

The pressure has extended beyond courts and regulators. JPMorgan Chase reportedly ended its banking relationship with Polymarket on Aug. 14 over regulatory concerns, although the bank remained interested in potentially underwriting a future public offering.

Against that backdrop, a reported $1 billion capital injection would give Polymarket substantial financial firepower to navigate regulatory battles, expand its platform and challenge Kalshi for leadership of the prediction-market industry.

The involvement of 1789 Capital also adds another layer of political significance to the deal. Trump Jr.’s connection to one of Polymarket’s major prospective investors comes as prediction markets become increasingly intertwined with politics, finance and the broader US debate over how emerging digital-asset markets should be regulated.

Polymarket is therefore not simply raising money at a multibillion-dollar valuation. It is raising capital at a moment when the future legal status of prediction markets themselves remains fiercely contested.