The value of AI Agent has collapsed. Should we give up or stay?

Author: Haotian

Looking at the piles of AI Agent projects that have almost hit the bottom (19B——>6B), there is a sense of death pressure of collective annihilation. In addition to heartache, many people are confused. What happened to the AI ​​Agent sector? Reflecting on the review, let me share a few opinions:

1) It is common to see a mountain of corpses in the early stages of a new trend, because the speed at which the troublemakers issue new assets is much faster than the speed at which innovative projects are implemented. Most people are forced to "PVP" in a pile of unverified concepts. Although we investment research bloggers try our best to discover valuable projects with a PVE mentality, we can't escape it in essence. The AI ​​Agent narrative revolution is still a masked ball with AI MEME.

However, retail investors’ Fomo or pessimism cannot determine the final outcome. Once AI Agent runs out of the new Lego paradigm of sustainability, the choice of the main capital can prove whether AI Agent can become popular.

2) Backed by the historical integration direction of AI + Crypto, AI Agent cannot be falsified. In the short term, many people will criticize web3’s AI Agent for speculating on concepts based on the application value of web2’s AI Agent, which is understandable. However, the application-driven core of AI Agent will not change, but web2 has chosen business models such as API calls and user payments, and web3 has chosen Tokenomics. Therefore, all abstract concepts above AI Agent will be verified in single AI application scenarios.

For example, DeFai AI Agent, using TEEs to realize self-custody of assets is only the first step. Whether AI can autonomously convert natural semantic understanding into real Swap, Staking and other operations is the second step. However, the logic of truly verifying the maturity of the business model is that AI Agent locks in the growth of TVL, the increase of TXs based on the operations performed by users based on AI Agent, and the optimization of user UX experience (Gas friction, profit probability, etc.) by AI Agent executing on-chain transactions. Before these cannot be verified, it is difficult to be 100% sure which project will come out;

Before that, put aside the anxiety of missing out on MEME, and lock in the benefits of the innovative landing of some valuable projects until a truly breaking business innovation point appears, and a mature "foundation" that can accumulate and enrich the commercial value of the combination is formed.

3) AI Agent seems to have been subdivided into many subdivided fields including single AI, framework standards, DeFai, etc., but it has basically not gotten rid of the temperament of a "grassroots team".

Although any innovation field cannot get rid of the chaotic state of the "chaos era" in the early stage, the lack of innovation in the products behind the #ai16z open source spirit totem, the challenges of mature Agent landing behind the #Virtual innovation, and the market expectations of 30-300M that can be brought by a dev, a repo, and a potential commercial roadmap are obviously "irrational".

It should be said that the wrong valuation and pricing system, the wrong PVP speed pass Fomo environment, and the lack of confidence in value innovation have jointly caused the short-term collapse of AI Agent. Fortunately, the market outlook for AI Agent is still there. Although the iron-blooded Holders are in pain, they are still holding on. Many entrepreneurial "regular forces" with strength, technical content and high barriers are rushing into the market, such as: #arc continues to catch up and challenge ai16z, etc.

Obviously, the early AI Agent web3 project model that relied on AI Agent narratives for rapid asset issuance and MEME-based gameplay has been falsified, and the next wave of innovation is accumulating strength. This market cooling period may be the time window for investing in R&D and exploring potential projects.