Source: Shangyun Observation
As my country's strength continues to grow, the United States' various strategic deployments are aimed at China. Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary who will be appointed as the Trump administration, commissioned the Bitcoin Research Institute to output this 46-page analysis report.
The theme of the report is "Reshaping the Global Economic Order: Bitcoin as a Tool for American Governance under the Competition between the United States and China".
The report was written by Matthew Pines, the strategic director of the institute, and mainly discussed how the United States should maintain its economic leadership, respond to geopolitical competition and reshape the global monetary order through a series of strategic measures, including the inclusion of Bitcoin in the national strategic asset reserve, in the context of challenges to the global economic order.
A careful reading of this report uses a lot of data and space to prove that the United States' position in the global environment is gradually being replaced by China, while there is also no lack of selective fabrication and propaganda of threats from China.
The report deduces that Bitcoin will rise from the current $100,000 to $500,000, $1 million, and $1.5 million per coin. The author hereby states that the summary of the report is for your reference only and does not provide advice to investors. If you want to obtain the original report, you can follow the official account and reply to the official account "Report 1" to download it. The following content is a summary of the report.
01 Changes in the power of China and the United States
Comparative changes in the defense industry
The current structural deficit in the United States has led to industrial shrinkage, economic inequality, and financial distortions. The rising public debt burden now squeezes fiscal space and creates national security risks (see Figure 1).

Figure 1 The United States spends more on interest payments than on defense
The report suggests that “Unless an energy and technological miracle occurs soon,the U.S. government will increasingly rely on more explicitly
radical Treasury bond issuance” leaf="">, repo, and debt monetizationstrategies, including quantitative easing, financial repression, and geopoliticalyield curve control, to providefundingforstrategies.” It exaggerates the Panda threat and emphasizes the revenue growth of its defense enterprises in the fields of sea, land, air, space, network, and nuclear. Its advantages in the field of shipbuilding are that its shipbuilding capacity is 230 times that of the United States. Many weapons in the United States, including the Tomahawk series, require China to catch up in the field of science and technology. I will not summarize this paragraph in detail. Just look at a picture. 
Imbalanced Sino-US economic relations
my country is using other financial and technological systems—including the Digital Silk Road Initiative, the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS), the emerging BRICS trade and currency, and the digital RMB—to counter the United States’ financial network power and weaken the dollar’s capabilities.
At the same time, it is increasingly clear that the U.S. Treasury market structure is fragile and faces serious cybersecurity risks, putting the United States in a position of increasing strategic vulnerability.
Generally speaking, the logic of the Sino-US competition is:
The United States: Long-term reliance on debt-financed consumption has led to fiscal deficits, industrial shrinkage and financial distortions, unstable treasury markets, and affected defense industrial bases.
China: Relying on fixed asset investment and exports to drive growth, its economic model has distorted global capital flows, such as lowering the rate of return on capital in other countries and prompting the United States to rely too much on debt consumption. Establishing a new financial and digital currency system to challenge the status of the United States.
Therefore, in this zero-sum game, it is urgent to improve the US financial system through innovative means - Bitcoin's appearance
02 The strategic value of Bitcoin
Characteristics and value of Bitcoin
Bitcoin has the characteristics of decentralization, fixed supply, portability, and programmability. It can be used as a means of storing value in the digital age, similar to "digital gold".
It can act as a safe-haven asset in times of crisis (such as bank failures, financial sanctions), has a low correlation with traditional assets, can be used as a diversification tool for investment portfolios, and is suitable for institutions and countries to hedge geopolitical risks, capital controls and inflation.
Synergy between Bitcoin and US dollar stablecoins
Stablecoins are widely used in emerging markets for savings, remittances, cross-border payments and corporate cash management. They are mainly anchored to the US dollar, indirectly strengthening the dominance of the US dollar.
The combination of Bitcoin and stablecoins can form a hybrid digital currency ecosystem with both stability and value-added potential. Bitcoin is used as a value storage and risk hedging tool, and stablecoins provide the liquidity and accessibility required for daily financial operations, which will help the expansion of the US dollar network around the world, especially in emerging markets to resist the expansion of China's digital financial influence.
The strategic significance of Bitcoin to the United States
If the United States establishes a strategic Bitcoin reserve, it will send a signal of support for Bitcoin to the market, attract capital, strengthen the financial system, lead financial innovation, gain first-mover advantage, and ensure long-term fiscal sustainability.
Bitcoin can help the United States offset the fragility of the debt-driven financial system in the global economic competition, and strengthen the status of the US dollar by coordinating with policies such as gold, long-term bonds, and tariffs. It is in line with the interests of the United States in promoting economic and technological strategies around the world, such as using technological advantages such as artificial intelligence to bind allies and maintain global leadership.
03 Strategic Deployment of the U.S. Financial System
Building a New Monetary System (“Bretton Woods System2nd”
)Using U.S. Treasury bonds and gold as the basic reserve assets, through strategic swaps and other means (such as exchanging short-term Treasury bonds, foreign exchange reserves or gold reserves for long-term bonds), stabilize the dollar system, respond to the trend of de-dollarization, and re-anchor the alliance relationship.
Promote domestic economic growth, fiscal discipline and energy independence, achieve re-industrialization, adjust credit allocation, revitalize the industrial base, enhance supply chain resilience, reduce dependence on manufacturing in rival countries, and restore the balance between public and private money creation.
Strategic measures at the international level
Use financial instruments (such as long-term bonds, century bonds, adjustments to the dollar swap quota, etc.) and trade policies (tariffs, trade agreements, etc.) to build geo-economic alliances, divide allies and opponents, stabilize fiscal policies, and strengthen the central position of the United States in international monetary settlements.
Leveraging the United States' leading edge in artificial intelligence and emerging technologies, by providing opportunities for technical cooperation, it can encourage allies to align with the United States' financial and trade policies, enhance alliance cohesion, maintain global leadership, and limit the influence of competitors (such as China).
Bitcoin-related strategic layout
The United States should establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve and actively participate in the Bitcoin market. As the value of the Bitcoin market increases, it can issue Bitcoin bonds, establish Bitcoin wealth funds and other financial instruments to diversify its debt portfolio, promote investment in key domestic industries, promote economic growth, and enhance fiscal strength. At the same time, it can use the characteristics and market influence of Bitcoin to expand the US dollar network, consolidate the dollar's dominant position in the global monetary system, and respond to global economic and geopolitical challenges.
04 Bitcoin Development Simulation
The report conducts simulation analysis based on the scenario that the US government holds 1 million bitcoins and the price of bitcoin rises to US$500,000 per coin, US$1 million per coin and US$1.5 million per coin.
ScenarioA: Bitcoin's market value reaches half of gold's market value (about10 trillion U.S. dollars)
Main Impact: United States100 leaf="">10,000 Bitcoin reserves are worth 500 billion US dollars, which significantly diversifies national reserve risks. Bitcoin is seen as an important supplement to central bank reserves. Sovereign and institutional investors may follow suit, but large holdings by the United States may affect market prices and liquidity, and infrastructure construction and regulatory frameworks need to be strengthened.
Secondary impacts: Bitcoin is widely used in emerging markets and cross-border transactions, promoting the development of blockchain technology. The United States' leadership in financial innovation is strengthened, and some allies may follow suit. Rival countries may accelerate the development of alternatives. Gulf countries may accelerate the reserve of Bitcoin. Bitcoin mining needs to balance economic and environmental interests. The United States may lead sustainable mining, and global mining competition will intensify.
ScenarioB: Bitcoin market cap equals gold (approximately20 trillion USD)
Main impact: U.S.100 trillion Bitcoin reserves value
1 trillion dollars, equivalent to gold reserves, Bitcoin has become a core global reserve asset, enhancing the US fiscal resilience, but it also brings market dependence and regulatory challenges. Sudden changes in market value may trigger financial fluctuations, requiring global central banks to adjust their strategies. Secondary impacts: Accelerated technological innovation, the emergence of Bitcoin-related financial products, enhancing its market position, changing the dynamics of global monetary power, the United States and its allies further integrating Bitcoin, other countries may reduce their dependence on US Treasury bonds, and the increase in the value of Bitcoin in the United States can support public investment, but attention should be paid to the impact of its market fluctuations on the economy. Scenario C: Bitcoin market cap reaches half of global sovereign debt market (approximately $30 trillion) Main impact: U.S. $100 million Bitcoin reserve value leaf="">1.5 trillion dollars, more than gold reserves, Bitcoin may become the world's main reserve asset, enhancing the geopolitical influence of the United States, but it also brings systemic risks, such as the global impact of market or technological failures. The United States needs to ensure the dominant position of Bitcoin.
Secondary impact: Bitcoin has led to a shift in global capital flows, which may impact economies that rely on legal currencies. The United States needs to balance the global market, and the demand for technology investment has increased. The United States can use Bitcoin reserves to promote public investment, but it has triggered discussions on fiscal sustainability. Bitcoin mining has become the focus of global energy and technological innovation. The United States should lead sustainable mining. International coordination of mining standards and energy efficiency has become the key. Bitcoin bonds may become a benchmark asset. The influence of Bitcoin wealth funds has expanded, but it needs to cope with governance challenges. International financial governance needs to be redefined to adapt to the role of Bitcoin.
05 Summary
The United States is facing a critical period of change in the global monetary system. The actions of competitors (mainly us) threaten its fiscal stability and geopolitical status. To maintain its leadership, the United States should promote the establishment of the "Bretton Woods" system2, integrate emerging assets such as Bitcoin, and implement a series of strategic initiatives at home and abroad, including revitalizing industry, achieving energy independence, strengthening technological innovation, and using financial and trade policies to consolidate geo-economic alliances, in order to reshape the global economic order and ensure its core position in a stable, cooperative and prosperous international system.