On March 7, 2025, the Trump administration completed a historic institutional breakthrough with the "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act". By incorporating 200,000 BTC (6% of the circulation) seized by the judiciary into the national reserve with a permanent ban on sales, the United States has achieved supply-side reform of the Bitcoin market for the first time. This "zero-cost increase" mechanism cleverly avoids fiscal disputes. Its deep value lies in: through institutional confirmation of ownership, Bitcoin is incorporated into the national financial infrastructure, laying the foundation for the monetary sovereignty game in the digital age.
At the White House Cryptocurrency Summit held the next day, the Trump administration announced the acceleration of the legislative process of the "Stablecoin Accountability Act", marking that the US cryptocurrency regulatory system has officially entered a new stage of systematic reconstruction. A new prologue has begun.
Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act Landed: “National Lockup”
On March 7, 2025, the US cryptocurrency regulatory policy ushered in a historic breakthrough. The Trump administration officially signed the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act, which classified the 200,000 bitcoins that had been accumulated and confiscated by the judicial department for a long time as national strategic reserve assets and established a permanent ban on sales. Although the bill did not directly expand the scale of government bitcoin purchases, by freezing nearly 6% of the bitcoin circulation, it can be said to be a "national lockup", which substantially reconstructed the market supply and demand pattern. In the medium and long term, the bill strengthens the "digital gold" attribute of Bitcoin through institutional confirmation of rights, and forms policy synergy with the "Bitcoin Tax Acceptance Act" pioneered by Texas, marking the completion of a key transformation of the US cryptocurrency regulatory paradigm.
The bill's original "zero-cost increase" mechanism allows the continuous expansion of reserves through compliant judicial procedures, which not only avoids the political controversy of traditional fiscal expenditures, but also reserves room for subsequent policy adjustments. It is worth noting that the "Bitcoin Tax Deduction Act" promoted by Texas at the same time shows that the state government is competing for the right to speak in the crypto economy through institutional innovation. This regulatory linkage between the federal and state governments has promoted the United States to quickly build the world's first multi-level crypto asset regulatory system, laying the foundation for establishing the status of a global crypto compliance center.
However, judging from the market's performance, the bill was partially regarded as negative at the beginning of its announcement because the US government did not directly buy coins, causing the price of Bitcoin to rise and fall, and then the view of long-term positive prospects in the future began to extend, and then a sharp rebound began. The market's response to this was a price of $91,000. In fact, when Trump announced that he would use Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve, the market had already fully responded to the positive news, and other countries in the world will need to respond in the future.
The implementation of the US Bitcoin strategic reserve policy may trigger a global chain reaction. If other major global economies follow suit and establish strategic reserves of cryptocurrencies, based on the theoretical model of supply and demand elasticity, this structural change will allow Bitcoin prices to gain at least 2-3 orders of magnitude of value revaluation space, fundamentally reshaping the global crypto asset valuation system. (It should be noted that in the future, if a country with a small economy like Ecuador also adopts Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, the impact on the reshaping of its value range will not be significant, unless the situation is relatively intensive and continuous)
Further thinking, the far-reaching impact of this bill lies in the struggle for financial discourse power behind the strategic reserve policy. Historical experience shows that the United States has successfully mastered the pricing dominance of global commodities by establishing a strategic oil reserve and gold reserve system. The current trend of "exporting the US regulatory framework" in the Bitcoin market is essentially an extended struggle for monetary sovereignty in the digital age. For other countries, whether to establish a strategic reserve of crypto assets has gone beyond the scope of simple economic decision-making and has evolved into a strategic choice for national financial security in the digital economy era. This must be taken seriously.
Stablecoin legislation and banking system integration: "Speculation-driven"Shiftto"Technology-enabled"
The implementation of the policy of Bitcoin strategic reserve has brought huge fluctuations to the market. At that time, the market was actually more looking forward to the White House Cryptocurrency Summit on March 8. Looking back at the content of the summit, there was nothing good to say, but the Trump administration clearly brought forward the legislative timetable of the Stablecoin Accountability Act to be completed before the August congressional recess, bringing major industry opportunities for the integration of stablecoin legislation and the banking system.
Trump believes that the key to ending the phenomenon of "bank exclusion" of cryptocurrencies lies in building a federal regulatory framework, especially focusing on regulating the reserve standards and institutional access qualifications for the issuance of stablecoins. This legislative process was extended by four months compared with the "100-day legislation" plan initially proposed by the Senate. According to the legislative framework disclosed by the Treasury Department, the new bill will establish a two-tier regulatory framework of "federal charter + state license", forcing issuers to maintain 100% US dollar reserves and access to a real-time audit system. This design not only absorbs the regulatory practice experience of the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS), but also achieves standard unification through the federal review mechanism of the Federal Reserve.
Licensed institutions are reshaping the power structure of the crypto market. The proportion of spot trading volume of compliant trading platforms jumped from 42% in 2024 to 79% in the second quarter of 2025, according to a special report by CoinMetrics. The average weekly net inflow of $4.7 billion is 12 times that of unlicensed platforms. This gap is particularly evident in Circle's USDC stablecoin, whose 99.1% reserve compliance rate supports an average daily transaction volume of $500 billion, accounting for 68% of global crypto payments. When the clearing system launched by HashKey Exchange in cooperation with Standard Chartered Bank and Deutsche Bank showed an 80% increase in efficiency and a 60% reduction in costs, the technical moat of licensed players has become clearly visible. The technological revolution of the banking system has become a new engine for industry growth. The time required for cross-border payments has been compressed from 10-60 minutes in traditional blockchains to less than 3 seconds, and the settlement failure rate has dropped from 2.3% to 0.07%. These transformations are derived from the access to the Federal Reserve's real-time settlement system. The report of the Bank for International Settlements pointed out that the automated KYC system has reduced the cost of single-customer authentication from $120 to $48, directly driving UBS's compliant wallet to gain 1.5 million new users in three months, of which 63% are first-time users of crypto assets. This efficiency leap is reshaping the behavior patterns of market participants, with the proportion of long-tail users with daily average transaction volume below $100 increasing from 12% to 29%.
The macroeconomic weight of crypto assets has entered a qualitative change stage. The IMF's calculation model shows that every 10% increase in crypto market value contributes 0.2 percentage points to the US GDP, which is of strategic value in the context of a $38 trillion fiscal deficit. The strong correlation between the 25% increase in Bitcoin volatility monitored by BlackRock and the changes in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reveals that the crypto market has become a new transmission medium for US dollar liquidity. Deutsche Bank's forecast further quantifies this trend, saying that by 2027, crypto assets will handle 35% of global payment settlement volume and obtain legal tender status in 17 major economies. When technology empowerment resonates with the regulatory framework, the end of this change will be the digital reconstruction of the global financial order.
Reconstruction of linkage between macroeconomics and crypto market: rise and fall depends on the US economy
The above situation is generally favorable, but it does not mean that the crypto market can rise, because the correlation between the crypto market and the US stock market is deeply bound.The game between the Trump administration's fiscal expansion policy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is reshaping the pricing logic of cryptocurrencies. From the most intuitive perspective, since the Bitcoin ETF was officially passed, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and US stocks has become more significant. Bloomberg terminal data shows that the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has risen from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.78 in Q2 2025. Therefore, the rise and fall of the crypto market is closely related to the US stock market and even the US economy.
The Federal Reserve is trapped in a policy cycle of "controlling inflation" and "fighting recession". The current US economy is facing the most typical stagflation dilemma since the 1970s. The combination of "high inflation + low growth" puts the Federal Reserve in a dilemma: if interest rates continue to be raised to suppress inflation, the interest cost of the $35 trillion in outstanding debt will devour 17% of federal fiscal revenue (CBO estimates); if interest rates are cut to stimulate the economy, it may repeat the vicious inflation of 1980. Historically, in similar stagflation environments, the median volatility of Bitcoin in three months reached 86%.
The turmoil in the US economy will lead to a contraction in the liquidity of the capital market. Under normal market conditions, liquidity contraction will trigger arbitrage funds to enter the market to balance supply and demand. However, when policy expectations are chaotic, this self-regulatory mechanism may fail: traders are more inclined to wait and see rather than actively make markets because they cannot predict the Fed's reaction function. When liquidity providers (such as market makers) collectively reduce their exposure, the market may fall into a "liquidity black hole" - price declines trigger more capital withdrawals, forming a vicious cycle.
Industry Outlook under the Global Landscape
The current policy shift in the United States is triggering a paradigm shift in global regulation. The sovereign reserve model of digital assets constructed by the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act and the bank integration path established by the Stablecoin Accountability Act provide a replicable regulatory framework sample for the world. As G20 countries have successively issued detailed rules for cryptocurrency regulation, the global market is evolving from the "regulatory arbitrage" stage to the "institutional competition" stage.
In the new era where the digital economy and geopolitics are intertwined, the reconstruction of the cryptocurrency regulatory framework has gone beyond the scope of simple technical specifications and has evolved into an important dimension of national financial competitiveness. The current policy practice of the United States shows that whoever can take the lead in building a regulatory system that takes into account both innovation inclusion and risk prevention will be able to occupy a strategic commanding height in the global competition of the digital economy. For global economies that are in a critical period of digital transformation, this paradigm shift in regulation is both a challenge and a historical opportunity to reshape the international financial order.
However, the revolutionary development of the crypto market led by the United States has also made the current volatility of the crypto market closely related to the U.S. economy. While we are watching the U.S. economy and the crypto market, we need to call for global participation in the construction of crypto market supervision to avoid the influence of the United States' monopoly on the crypto market.
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