The hidden winner of SpaceX's IPO is actually it.

A controversial venture capital investment made a decade ago is evolving into one of the most profitable bets in Silicon Valley history. With SpaceX announcing its acquisition of artificial intelligence company xAI and integrating its vast business empire, a hidden major external shareholder is reaping enormous returns from this capital feast. According to an earlier article on Wall Street Insights, Musk's SpaceX completed its acquisition of artificial intelligence company xAI in a deal valued at a staggering $250 billion. This not only created the world's most valuable privately held technology entity but also paved the way for SpaceX's IPO, aiming for a $1.5 trillion valuation. Such a massive wealth creation is destined to create a hidden king. That king is Google. For Google, which holds approximately 7.4% of SpaceX, this initial investment of only $900 million is expected to soar to $111 billion, a return of over 120 times. Combined with its 14% stake in Anthropic, this tech giant has quietly secured the dual benefits of space infrastructure and cutting-edge artificial intelligence without directly participating in operational risks. The gamble of ten years ago has paid off. Back in January 2015, when Google and Fidelity jointly invested $1 billion in SpaceX (Google contributing approximately $900 million), the market was skeptical. At that time, SpaceX was valued at only $12 billion, the Falcon 9 rocket had not yet achieved routine recovery, and Starlink was still in the conceptual stage. Musk was burning through cash to prove the feasibility of reusable rockets. The Wall Street Journal expressed skepticism about the investment at the time, noting that "a major technical and financial challenge facing the project is the cost of installing ground antennas and computer terminals to receive satellite signals," and questioning "how SpaceX plans to transmit internet signals to Earth, as the company is perceived to lack control over the radio spectrum." But Google saw a tremendous opportunity: a company with an effective monopoly in large-scale space launches, a founder with boundless conviction, and a business model that would become increasingly valuable as global data and computing demands exploded. As Starlink transitioned from a PowerPoint presentation to a reality and gained widespread application, and with the maturation of rocket recovery technology, SpaceX's valuation curve has shown near-vertical growth—from $36 billion in 2020 to $350 billion by the end of 2024, and then to its IPO target of $1.5 trillion. According to Bloomberg data analysis, if SpaceX goes public as planned at a valuation of $1.5 trillion, the value of Google's shares will skyrocket from its initial investment of $900 million to approximately $111 billion. This means that every dollar Google invested has yielded a return of approximately $123. Earlier last year, Google reported $8 billion in gains from "unmarketable equity securities," which Bloomberg confirmed came from the revaluation of SpaceX, accounting for 25% of Google's first-quarter net profit. It's worth noting that this $111 billion gain was previously completely hidden from ordinary observers, because as a private company, Google's stake in SpaceX had essentially remained on its balance sheet at cost for a decade. However, once SpaceX goes public, this $111 billion position will become a reality, appearing in financial reports and fundamentally changing people's perception of the value of their Google investment. For a company with a market capitalization of $4.1 trillion and a nearly 70% increase in its stock price over the past year, this would still be a huge catalyst. Possible variable: Starlink separate listing. It's worth noting that Musk has repeatedly stated that SpaceX will not go public until its Mars colonization transportation system is in regular operation, because the Mars colonization plan may not be profitable for years or even decades, making it difficult to gain the support of public market shareholders. However, Musk has also repeatedly mentioned the possibility of listing SpaceX's Starlink satellite internet subsidiary separately. SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell confirmed in 2020 that "Starlink is the right type of business we can go public." Musk himself stated in 2021 that an IPO might be considered once Starlink's business becomes "quite predictable," and in 2022 indicated that this could happen "in three or four years." Starlink currently generates almost all of SpaceX's profits and could account for as much as 76% of SpaceX's $15.5 billion revenue in 2025. If Starlink, rather than SpaceX, ultimately goes public, investors will still own SpaceX's cash cow without bearing the expensive burden of "conquering Mars," while the parent company can use the IPO proceeds to fund Musk's Mars colonization plans. Regardless of the final form of the IPO, Google's 2015 investment will be one of the most successful venture capital investments in history.