The crypto market plummeted across the board. Is the bull run over?

Host: Jinse Finance @JinseFinance

Special Guests:

Cat @catmangox

Sicheng/Ultiverse @sicheng1990

Paer @Patrade_Buer

Jinze Muselabs @kanazawa0x0

Topic 1: Recent predictions about Bitcoin are polarized. Some predict that Bitcoin will fall to around 60,000, while others predict that Bitcoin will rise to 250,000 US dollars. This week, the Fear and Greed Index has been hovering around 20, and the market has fallen into a FUD sentiment. Dear guests, do you think the bull market is still there? If it is, when will it end? What is the reason? And how should retail investors manage their funds?

Mr. Mao: Cyclic adjustments, institutional entry supports long-term confidence

The current downturn in the Bitcoin market is a cyclical adjustment in the bull market, not the end. He cited historical data to point out that Bitcoin's halving cycle every four years often ushered in a rise after a year and a half, and the current pullback is fundamentally different from the bear market panic in 2022. "Be calm when others panic, and analyze carefully." He emphasized that the continuous entry of institutional investors through products such as ETFs is an important support for the bull market. For example, the expectation that many countries plan to include Bitcoin in their reserves in 2025 may bring a new round of capital inflows.  

For short-term risks, Mr. Mao admitted that if Bitcoin falls below $60,000, it may cause further panic, but the possibility of falling below the previous low is low. "Is the bull market over? The key lies in whether the key support level can be maintained."  

Sicheng: Narrative drives the bull market, beware of selling after expectations are fulfilled       

From the perspective of market narrative, this round of bull market is driven by multiple factors such as the halving cycle, the end of the Fed's interest rate hike, and Trump's policy expectations, but these positive factors have been partially realized. "Whether the bull market exists depends on your investment cycle." He reminded that if there is a lack of new narratives in the future, the market may turn weak. On-chain data shows that the holdings of long-term holders (LTH) are close to historical highs, while short-term selling has increased, which is in line with the characteristics of a mid-term wash in the bull market. He particularly pointed out that retail investors need to clarify their investment logic: "Those who play contracts should look at short-term K-lines, and long-term investors should ignore fluctuations." For the end of the bull market signal, he suggested paying attention to the liquidity inflection point, the overheating of the MVRV indicator on the chain, and the sudden change of macro policies. Pal: From a technical perspective, the trend has not changed. Teacher Pal cuts in from technical analysis and believes that the current decline is only a retracement and has not destroyed the long-term trend. "The retracement means that the trend has not ended and it is a healthy adjustment." He analyzed the weekly chart of Bitcoin and said that the rise from October 2023 to March 2024 was the "expansion stage", and the current pullback to around $71,000 is a normal fluctuation, and the key support level is between $48,000 and $49,000. Falling below this range means the start of a bear market. He is optimistic about Bitcoin breaking through $110,000 in the long term, but needs to wait for the Fed to release water or Trump's policy to be clarified. "It is okay to make fixed investments below $80,000, but be cautious in short-term operations." Jin Ze: Lack of innovation and liquidity, the foundation of the bull market is unstable. Teacher Jin Ze bluntly stated that this round of bull market lacks industry innovation similar to DeFi Summer, and the Fed's balance sheet reduction has led to liquidity tightening. "The bull market needs innovation and liquidity to drive it." He believes that the reasonable price of Bitcoin should be between $40,000 and $50,000. The previous surge to $110,000 was mainly dependent on short-term expectations of Trump's election.  

He is cautious about the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs: "The scale has caught up with gold ETFs, but the ceiling of institutional allocation is obvious." If you want to break through $200,000, the global asset management fund allocation ratio needs to increase from 0.2% to 0.5%, which will take several years.  

Topic 2:

Recently, there are different opinions on the expectations of interest rate cuts. Some people believe that the market expects the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts as early as June to prevent the economy from deteriorating. A cryptocurrency commentator suggested that the Trump administration may be deliberately creating uncertainty in the stock market to force Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to lower interest rates. What do you think of this month's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting? What kind of signals do you think the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting this month will send and what impact will it have on the market?

Teacher Jin Ze: Balance sheet reduction is more important than interest rate cuts      

The Fed's suspension of balance sheet reduction is more important than interest rate cuts. "Suspension of balance sheet reduction is more important than interest rate cuts." If the contraction of base money stops, it will ease market liquidity pressure. However, he pointed out that Trump's tariff policy is essentially "fiscal pumping", which may offset the effect of monetary policy easing, and attention should be paid to the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies.  

Pal: Interest rate cuts are difficult to achieve, and trading difficulty has increased sharply        

Teacher Pal believes that the probability of a rate cut in June is extremely low, and the market rebound is only driven by emotions. "The trend has not changed, and high altitude is more suitable." He suggested that investors participate in the short-term when good news appears, but they need to stop profits in time to avoid excessive optimism.  

Sicheng: The threshold for interest rate cuts has not been met      

Teacher Sicheng analyzed that current inflation, employment and economic data do not support interest rate cuts. "The threshold for interest rate cuts has not been met, so wait patiently." The CPI year-on-year increase of 3.4% and the unemployment rate of 3.9% show economic resilience. The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates until inflation clearly falls.  

Mr. Mao: Trump's policies may force the Fed to shift       

Mr. Mao pointed out that there is a possibility that Trump will create stock market fluctuations to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. "Trump is the reason for success and Trump is the reason for failure." But if tariffs push up inflation, the Fed may be forced to maintain high interest rates, which will increase the risk of economic recession.  

Topic 3:

DEX trading volume has dropped by 80% from the peak after Trump launched memecoin. With the weakening of on-chain activities and the plunge in trading volume, liquidity is drying up. What do you think of the future of memecoin? How do you think of the performance of doge, pepe and other coins that rank high in the industry? And what kind of meme has the potential to explode again?

Pal: 99.9% will return to zero, only survivors have a chance      

Meme coins are "speculative harvesting tools". Under the current liquidity exhaustion, 99.9% of the projects will return to zero. "Meme coins are speculative tools, and the bubble will eventually burst." Only Doge, Pepe and other currencies with community cultural symbols may survive, but they need to go through a long-term wash.  

Sicheng: Trust on the chain collapses, users return to mainstream assets       

After Trump launched his own Meme coin, the market narrative was subverted. "It is easy to create a god, but difficult to keep it." Users have turned conservative due to the shrinkage of mainstream assets, and on-chain activities have dropped sharply. Meme coins are unlikely to see a boom in the short term. Topic 4: Bitcoin has fallen by about 30% since Trump took office. Trump's tough tariff policy is causing market concerns about economic recession. Gold assets are particularly eye-catching. What impact has this had on the flow of funds in the financial market? Why does this impact occur? Jin Ze: Tariff tightening pumps money, risky assets suffer from setbacks. From a macro perspective, Mr. Jin Ze analyzed that Trump's tariff policy is essentially "pumping money from the market", causing funds to flow to safe-haven assets such as gold. "Tariffs are tightening, and funds are seeking safety." Meme coins, as high-risk assets, are the first to be affected.  

Mr. Mao: Gold is still the king of safe havens, and Bitcoin needs to be verified       

Mr. Mao has reservations about Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative. "Gold is still the boss, and Bitcoin needs to be verified." In the face of systemic risks, funds still give priority to gold, and Bitcoin's safe haven properties still need time to test.  

Conclusion: The Light of Reason in the Eye of the Storm      

Although the four experts disagreed on the short-term trend, they had a clear consensus: the bull market has not ended, but the path is more bumpy. Federal Reserve policies, Trump's actions and industry innovation will be key variables in the future. For retail investors, disciplined position management and staying away from emotional operations can capture opportunities in the huge waves of the crypto market. As Mr. Sicheng said: "Whether there is a bull market depends on how you define your own battlefield."

Note: This article is based on the live discussion of the four guests. Some data has been supplemented and verified and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky and decisions must be made with caution.