Headline
▌SpaceX IPO Approaching, Triggers Fund Shifting; Wall Street May Sell Billions of Dollars Worth of Tech Stocks to Make Up Funds for SpaceX Subscriptions
According to The Information, SpaceX's upcoming large-scale initial public offering (IPO) has triggered a flurry of activity from large Wall Street funds. The report states that about a week ago, a private plane bearing the SpaceX logo carried nearly 200 investors from large Wall Street funds to Texas to attend a multi-day roadshow hosted by SpaceX executives. Due to overwhelming demand, the plane was even unable to accommodate all interested investors. As the listing of this company, comprised of Musk's rocket and AI businesses, draws near, Wall Street may be discussing which tech stocks to sell to free up funds for SpaceX subscriptions, potentially triggering a multi-billion dollar sell-off of tech stocks.
▌Media Reveals Details of Iran's Latest Negotiation Proposal: The Proposal Includes Three Stages
On May 4th, according to CCTV International News, citing Al Jazeera's report this afternoon local time, Iran's latest negotiation proposal includes three stages. The first stage includes "transforming the ceasefire into a comprehensive ceasefire within 30 days," "establishing principles for building an international mechanism that guarantees no resurgence of hostilities," "achieving a ceasefire in all regions with both sides committing not to violate it again, including all of Iran's regional allies and Israel," "gradually lifting the blockade on Iranian ports in a manner appropriate to the gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz," "Iran's responsibility for clearing mines," "readjusting Iran's previous proposals regarding compensation," and "the US withdrawing from waters surrounding Iran and ceasing new troop buildup." The second stage includes "discussions on a comprehensive halt to uranium enrichment for a maximum period of 15 years," and "after the stipulated period expires, Iran will resume uranium enrichment activities according to the principle of zero stockpiles."
... The plan opposes the dismantling or destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities, and proposes solutions such as relocating its existing highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or diluting its enrichment level. Furthermore, the plan also addresses issues such as the gradual lifting of economic sanctions against Iran. In the third phase, Iran will hold strategic talks with regional countries to discuss how to build a security system covering the entire region. (Dongxin News Agency) Market Data As of press time, according to CoinGecko data: BTC price is $78,866.13, a 24-hour change of +0.8%; ETH price is $2,330.47, a 24-hour change of +1.1%; BNB price is $618.96, a 24-hour change of +0.5%. SOL price is $84.02, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours; DOGE price is $0.1114, up 3.5% in the last 24 hours; XRP price is $1.39, up 0.5% in the last 24 hours; TRX price is $0.338, up 0.3% in the last 24 hours. WLFI price is $0.05953, up 7.7% in 24 hours; HYPE price is $41.27, up 0.4% in 24 hours.
Policy
▌Iranian Foreign Ministry: US Has Responded to Iran's "14-Point Proposal"
On May 4, local time May 3, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagaei stated that the United States had responded to Iran's "14-point proposal" through Pakistan, and Iran is reviewing it. Bagaei pointed out that Iran proposed reaching an understanding on the complete end of the war within 30 days and agreeing on its implementation method, focusing on ending the conflict on all fronts, including Lebanon. Bagaei also said, "At this stage, the US and Iran are not conducting nuclear negotiations." (Dongxin News Agency)
▌Trump: Iran's "New Proposal" Is Unacceptable
On May 4, US President Trump stated in a telephone interview that Iran's new proposal is unacceptable.
Trump said, "This is unacceptable to me. I've looked at it, I've looked at everything—this is unacceptable." In addition, during the interview, Trump again urged Israeli President Herzog to pardon Prime Minister Netanyahu, who is accused of corruption. Iran recently submitted a new 14-point proposal to the US through mediator Pakistan, including ensuring no further military aggression, paying reparations, and establishing a new governance mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated on the 2nd that he would soon assess Iran's new proposal, but "cannot imagine" it being "acceptable." (CCTV) ▌Ethereum Foundation: Key Goals of Glamsterdam Upgrade Basically Completed, Consensus Reached on 200 Million Gas Limit Lower Limit On May 4th, the Ethereum Foundation published a summary of the Soldøgn Interop work, stating that it has basically completed the key goals of the Glamsterdam upgrade, including reaching a consensus on a 200 million gas limit lower limit after the upgrade, achieving stable operation of the ePBS external Builder process, and finalizing the EIP-8037 gas repricing parameters. The focus of the Glamsterdam upgrade is on safely increasing the gas limit to expand Ethereum's throughput, while EIP-8037 will prevent the state from expanding infinitely due to high gas limits by increasing the cost of state creation. The Ethereum Foundation also stated that most clients have achieved stable operation on glamsterdam-devnet-2 and successfully tested the entire external Builder process. In addition, substantial progress has been made on FOCIL, native account abstraction, and Hegotá upgrade-related features. In the coming weeks, core developers will continue to work on client hardening, testing improvements, and code merging. Final parameters will still be publicly confirmed at the AllCoreDevs conference. On May 3rd, Paolo Ardoino, CEO of stablecoin issuer Tether, stated on the X platform that Tether may need to advance integration between WDK and QVAC in the future to support Agent Card-related features. Analysts believe this direction will help improve the connection layer between AI agents and crypto payment infrastructure, providing more efficient underlying support for automated application scenarios. Cryptocurrency ▌Morgan Stanley: Bitcoin Will Eventually Appear on US Bank Balance Sheets, It's Just Not the Right Time On May 4th, Morgan Stanley's MSBT product attracted over $100 million through self-service channels in the six days before its launch, even before it was open to financial advisors. Although the company formally recommends allocating 2%–4% to Bitcoin, adoption by financial advisors remains slow, showing a significant awareness and education gap, which Morgan Stanley is currently working to address internally. Oldenburg did not rule out the possibility of Morgan Stanley including Bitcoin on its balance sheet in the future, but she warned that Federal Reserve regulatory guidance, Basel rules, and the global regulatory framework mean that this process will be longer than many expect.
▌Poll: Only 1% of US Voters List Cryptocurrency as Top Issue in Midterm Elections
May 4th news, according to a survey of 1,000 registered US voters commissioned by CoinDesk, only 1% of respondents listed cryptocurrency as the most important issue in the 2026 US midterm elections, almost at the bottom of all concerns. In contrast, the cost of living (36%), employment and the economy (13%), and Social Security and Medicare (11%) were the issues of greatest concern to voters. The survey also showed that US voters as a whole hold a relatively negative view of cryptocurrency, with only 27% of respondents saying they had invested in, traded, or used cryptocurrency, and another 27% saying they might participate in the future.
... Approximately 47% of respondents believed the Republican Party was more favorable towards cryptocurrencies, while only 14% believed the Democratic Party was more supportive of the crypto industry. However, regarding "which party they trusted more to manage crypto affairs," the Democratic Party's 27% slightly exceeded the Republican Party's 25%, while 40% indicated they trusted neither party. Although cryptocurrencies are not a core election issue, approximately 40% of respondents still indicated they would prefer to vote for candidates whose views align with their own crypto beliefs, demonstrating the continued rise in the influence of digital asset issues in American politics.
▌Michael Saylor: Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin this week, will resume purchases next week
On May 3rd, Michael Saylor updated his post stating that Strategy did not purchase Bitcoin this week, but will resume purchases next week.
▌Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF Adds Approximately 286 Bitcoins, Total Holdings Reach 2620 Bitcoins
On May 3, according to data monitored by Arkham, the on-chain wallet address of Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT), a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, added a total of 286.693 BTC through Coinbase on May 2, worth $22.48 million. As of now, MSBT's total Bitcoin holdings have reached 2620, worth approximately $204 million.
...
▌CryptoQuant: Bitcoin's April Rally Primarily Driven by "Speculative Factors," Caution Should Be Wary of Correction Risk
On May 3, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, wrote in a report: "Demand for perpetual futures contracts was the sole driver of Bitcoin's price increase in April, while apparent spot demand continued to contract. This structure historically typically occurs in bear markets and is often unsustainable." Moreno stated that this divergence between rising futures demand and contracting spot demand is one of the clearest signals on-chain, indicating that this rally is more speculative than structurally driven. He pointed out that this means the price increase is primarily driven by leverage, rather than new Bitcoin inflows. Moreno also stated: "Historically, this type of structure lacks the foundation to support sustained price increases, and once futures positions begin to unwind, it is usually corrected through a price correction." CryptoQuant stated that the current demand structure driven by perpetual futures is similar to the situation at the beginning of the 2022 bear market.
... While this doesn't guarantee a identical outcome this time, the current structure does present "significant downside risks." On May 4th, Cash App, the cryptocurrency platform owned by billionaire Jack Dorsey, officially launched its Bitcoin proof-of-reserve feature, verifying to over 60 million users that all Bitcoin holdings on the platform are fully backed by 1:1 reserves. The market believes this move is a significant step forward for the crypto industry in terms of transparency, user trust, and self-custody standards, and is seen as a positive signal for the long-term healthy development of the industry. **Important Economic Developments** On May 3, Nick Timiraos, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed's autonomy, often referred to as its independence, stems from the establishment of the agency by Congress. Congress created a committee of officials with long, staggered terms, immunity from impeachment, and full control over its budget (and buildings). (Dongxin News Agency) **Kashkari: If the War Continues to Push Up Inflation, the Fed "May Need to Raise Interest Rates"** On May 3, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari stated that as the war disrupts supply chains and pushes up inflationary pressures, the Fed "may need to raise interest rates" in certain situations. Kashkari stated that the longer the war lasts, the greater the inflationary pressures will be, and even if the conflict ends immediately, supply chain recovery could still take months. He emphasized that the core challenge facing the Federal Reserve is the "high degree of uncertainty surrounding the inflation path," therefore policymakers need to remain open to the future path of interest rates. Furthermore, he stated that he does not believe the level of US government debt constitutes an "immediate crisis," and expressed his anticipation of future cooperation with Federal Reserve Governor nominee Kevin Warsh, and his willingness to seriously consider some of the concerns raised by him.
▌The probability of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by the end of June is 52%
May 4th news: Polymarket's forecast market shows that there is a 52% probability that traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal by the end of June.
(Jinshi) On May 4th, Iraqi border crossing authorities announced on May 2nd that 70 tanker trucks carrying crude oil had entered Syria from Iraq via the Rabia border crossing. This marks the reopening of this land-based oil transport route by Iraq after a 13-year hiatus. The Rabia border crossing, located in Nineveh province in northwestern Iraq, had been closed for a long period since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011 and only reopened this April. The crossing is not far from the oil fields of Mosul and Kirkuk in northern Iraq. (Dongxin News Agency) Financial Secretary Paul Chan: Hong Kong's Q1 GDP Growth Expected to be Strongest in Nearly 5 Years On May 4th, Hong Kong's estimated first-quarter GDP figures will be released on Tuesday (May 5th). Financial Secretary Paul Chan stated in his blog that with continued improvement in private consumption, coupled with continued strong performance in exports and fixed investment, the estimated first-quarter GDP growth will further accelerate compared to the revised 4% growth in the fourth quarter of last year, becoming the strongest quarterly growth in nearly five years. (Dongxin News Agency) US Treasury Secretary Bessenter: US Energy Exports Reach Record Levels On May 4th, US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that US energy exports have reached record levels; the only factor limiting US energy exports is infrastructure. The US is a "big winner" in the energy market. (Dongxin News Agency)
▌Federal Reserve Governor Barr Warns: Private Lending Risks May Spread to the Financial System Through "Psychological Contagion"
On May 4, Federal Reserve Governor Barr stated that pressures in the private lending sector could trigger "psychological contagion," leading to a broader credit crunch. He reiterated his warning that regulation of Wall Street should not be relaxed amid rising risks. Barr stated that while the direct link between banks and private lending does not currently appear "particularly worrying," other areas, such as the overlap between the insurance industry and private lending institutions, warrant attention.
“There’s also a problem of psychological contagion,” he said. “When people see private credit, they might not say, ‘This is a special problem, these are high-risk loans, the rest of the corporate sector is different,’ but rather, ‘Wow, it seems like there’s a crack in our corporate sector. Maybe there’s a crack in the corporate bond market over here too.’” He added, “Then there could be a credit contraction, which could lead to even greater financial stress.” (Dongxin News Agency)
▌US Officials Clarify: Trump’s “Rescue” of Ships Trapped in the Strait of Hormuz Does Not Involve Naval Escorts
On May 4, according to the Wall Street Journal, US President Trump announced earlier that the US would begin guiding merchant ships out of the Strait of Hormuz. He also stated that negotiations between the US and Tehran are continuing in an effort to find a way to end the conflict. According to a senior US official, this new initiative, which Trump calls the “Freedom Plan,” aims to allow countries, insurance companies, and shipping organizations to coordinate ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
... The official stated that the current plan does not involve US Navy warships escorting ships through the strait. (Jinshi) ▌The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 92.8% According to CME's "FedWatch" on May 4th: the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by June is 92.8%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 7.2%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 88.8%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 10.9%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 0.3%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged by September is 83.0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 16.0%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 1.0%. (Golden Encyclopedia) Can Bitcoin Still Be Called "Digital Gold" During Geopolitical Crises? Every geopolitical crisis causes gold prices to rise while Bitcoin prices plummet. After six tests, the claim of "digital gold" has never been substantiated by data. Countries hoard gold but exclude Bitcoin from their reserves. For investors, Bitcoin exhibits asymmetry: it falls with stocks but doesn't rise with them. Three structural asymmetries prevent Bitcoin from achieving safe-haven status: an overabundance of derivatives (market structure), the dominance of leveraged traders (participant composition), and a lack of repeatable behavioral records (behavioral accumulation). Bitcoin is not a safe-haven asset, but it is a "useful asset in times of crisis," and it can indeed function when borders are closed and banks fail. If these three asymmetries narrow, Bitcoin may no longer be a replica of gold, but rather a completely new "next-generation gold." Generational shifts and the widespread application of algorithms are key factors that could accelerate this process.