SemiAnalysis: Anthropic's Q3 profit is expected to exceed $1 billion.

Author: Xu Chao

A recent analysis by research firm SemiAnalysis reveals that Anthropic is reshaping the AI ​​commercialization landscape with profitability and growth rates far exceeding its competitors. Leveraging its high-margin business model centered on APIs, Anthropic has become a leader in the B2B AI market.

According to a deep-dive report released by SemiAnalysis, Anthropic is projected to achieve $1 billion in GAAP EBIT in the third quarter of 2026, corresponding to a profit margin of approximately 6%. Meanwhile, its annual recurring revenue (ARR) has surged from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to over $60 billion currently. The firm predicts that if Anthropic maintains a net increase in ARR (NNARR) of approximately $15 billion per month, its ARR could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027, corresponding to a company value of $6 trillion, making it the world's most valuable company.

Anthropic secretly filed for an IPO on June 1st. SemiAnalysis believes that going public at this time is strategically urgent—Alphabet has completed an $84.75 billion equity financing round, and Meta is rumored to have plans for tens of billions of dollars in financing, meaning the capital market window is narrowing. The report points out that Anthropic's superior financial data and business model mean it should go public before OpenAI to gain the upper hand in the capital competition.

Claude Code Ignites B2B Market, ARR More Than Doubles in a Single Quarter

Anthropic's performance turning point stems from the explosive popularity of Claude Code. SemiAnalysis data shows that Claude Code currently accounts for more than 7% of all code commits on GitHub, directly driving the company's monthly ARR to jump from $3 billion in January to $11 billion in March in the first quarter.

In terms of revenue structure, Anthropic and OpenAI show a significant divergence. Approximately 75% to 85% of Anthropic's ARR comes from its usage-based API business, while consumer subscriptions account for only 5% of total ARR. In contrast, OpenAI will still derive over 65% of its revenue from subscription models in Q1 2026, with consumer ARR accounting for approximately 40%.