Retail trading will dominate the next two decades.

Author: Tulip King @tulipking; Compiled and edited by: BitpushNews

Retail trading is experiencing a golden age: even the Pope downloaded FOMO to trade meme stocks. Everyone wants to be a streamer. Market predictions are everywhere.

I like Guy, but we really disagree on this point.

The mainstream explanation for this phenomenon is usually quite pessimistic:

Young people can't afford houses, wages can't keep up with asset prices, and the entire economy is divided into "those who own appreciating assets" and "those who have nothing."

Faced with the prospect of still lagging behind after 40 years of work, an entire generation decided to take a gamble, hoping to reach the top of the K-line curve. I don't deny the validity of this argument. If the lottery becomes the only path to upward mobility in people's eyes, then indeed, everyone might as well just go to the casino and gamble. However, I strongly object to taking this as the whole truth. What if this wasn't some desperate act, but rather the turning point of a 20-year-long "super trend of retail trading"? "I want to be an internet celebrity." Did you know that YouTube used to be the default app on iPhones? From the sale of the first iPhone in 2007 until the release of iOS 6 in 2012, the YouTube app was pre-installed on every device. In fact, at that time, you couldn't even uninstall the default app from your phone. Whether you liked it or not, YouTube was stuck on your phone. It's quite interesting to consider that Steve Jobs was a key driver in this decision. We know a few things about Steve Jobs: First, he was a visionary prophet; second, he had an almost obsessive control over the design and user experience details of the iPhone; third, he was passionate about content, movies, and storytelling (don't forget, he founded Pixar during his "exile" from Apple and even produced *Toy Story*, this guy truly loved content). Those interested can search for this video. Jobs clearly understood that YouTube would play a crucial role in the direction of media. He personally showcased the native YouTube app as a key feature at the first iPhone launch event. Google even re-encoded its entire YouTube video library from Flash to H.264 at Apple's request for a native experience on devices. Steve Jobs was clearly right. YouTube is now an undisputed behemoth. While industry estimates aren't absolutely precise, approximately 5% to 10% of global content consumption is currently done on YouTube. This figure directly surpasses the combined total of all media formats, including traditional television, social media, movies, live streaming, competing video software, and even pornographic websites (Cornhub). This miracle is unprecedented, and it is completely reshaping the entire content industry: Breaking the traditional news monopoly: YouTube native news channels like Breaking Points have about three times the viewership of Fox and CNN, fundamentally changing the way news is produced and disseminated. For better or worse, ordinary people under 35 believe far more from what they hear on the Tim Dillon Show than from anything they see on cable news (I belong to this group myself). Disrupting the consumer goods production model: MrBeast and Logan Paul are redefining the business model of Consumer Product Groups (CPG), leveraging their control of traffic pools to successfully build household names like Feastables (chocolate brand) and Prime (beverage brand). By the way, a little-known fact: did you know they are also extremely active venture capitalists? Given their unparalleled channels and distribution capabilities, they are likely the most valuable investors you can find on the Cap Table. No wonder top VC firm a16z is so eager to enter the new media arena; they are truly afraid of being left far behind by this broccoli-headed Gen Z. YouTubers are going head-to-head with Hollywood: They're going to clash with Hollywood head-on. Films like Markiplier's *Iron Lung*, Curry Barker's *Obsession*, and Kane Pixels' *Backrooms* are constantly breaking box office and profit records. Moreover, Markiplier is now one of GoPro's largest individual shareholders. From filming equipment and production to directing, acting, and distribution, YouTubers are gradually swallowing up the entire Hollywood supply chain. Undoubtedly, we are experiencing a genuine and unstoppable "supercycle of YouTube content."

Dominant Low Position

It all started with a funny short video like "Charlie bit my finger" that went viral by chance, and then evolved into localized content studios like Smosh—they built a rhythmic production line and assembled a complete operations team. Then, this wave gave rise to superstars like PewDiePie with 100 million subscribers (an astronomical number).

Dominant Low Position

It all started with a funny short video like "Charlie bit my finger" that went viral by chance, and then evolved into localized content studios like Smosh—they built a rhythmic production line and assembled a complete operations team. Then, this wave gave birth to superstars like PewDiePie with 100 million subscribers (an astronomical number).

We are on the road to victory

All of this is a bottom-up revolution. Initially, encryption was only used to buy drugs and fake IDs online. Then every subsequent domino and feature in the market began to fall one after another.

Crypto is so massive not because we now have Wall Street's respect; rather, it's because crypto has become so massive that Wall Street has no choice but to acknowledge our existence and live in the reality we are creating. This super-trend in the market is repositioning it from an institutionally regulated product to a retail playground: If you want to trade memes, go for it. If you want to bet on the weather, the Iran war, or what Tom Brady will say while commentating on a football game, go for it. If you're a perpetual contract trader, turn on that VPN and get started. Maybe you like trading cards and JPEGs; there's a place for you here too. This truly encompasses everything, and that's precisely why we're on the path to victory. This major trend is so vast that it's unavoidable. Yes, the market is indeed filled with a large number of blind traders who are constantly losing money, even those who should have stopped their losses long ago. But in the primeval forest of memes, you'll also find that the characteristics of open networks are constantly incubating, refining, and polishing amazing talents: You'll see traders with an astonishing talent for market mechanism design (such as Jeff, Shoku, Shayne Coplan, and Cobie); You'll see traders with an extremely keen sense of content dissemination (such as Threadguy, Rasmr, and Orangie); You'll see traders with profound philosophical insights (such as Ryan Watkins and Based16z); You'll see traders with an extraordinary understanding of product form (such as Brandon Millman, Alon, Se & Paul, and Alex Atallah). Everyone will be drawn to the cryptocurrency market like moths to a flame. As the elite cultivated in the crypto world matures, coupled with the continuous influx of top talent from the traditional financial system, the allure of being a participant in the crypto market will only grow stronger. People will yearn to trade like their favorite creators and build projects like their idolized founders. This is an irreversible historical inevitability. Open Systems Will Prevail. Allow me to reiterate the core belief of cryptocurrency, because many of you seem to have forgotten, or even become utterly pessimistic: Open systems will prevail. Open content will prevail. Open software will prevail. Open markets will prevail. This is capitalism, welcome to the real world. Miracles will happen when marginal costs drop to zero and distribution channels expand globally. Whether it's a centralized system like YouTube and software systems (Linux is, in a sense, a form of dictatorship), or a decentralized system like cryptocurrency, as long as the barrier to entry is lowered enough, the invisible hand of the market will work its magic, allowing top talent to emerge, expanding the pie, and benefiting everyone. Chain Reaction and Future Vision First, prepare for the arrival of the era of influencer traders. I hope you enjoy streamers like Threadguy and Rasmr, because as trading increasingly becomes a "sport," they will only become more popular. As the crypto trading experience becomes increasingly sophisticated, the audience for these live streams will experience explosive growth with the influx of new users: Ordinary people outside the crypto space (norms) will flock to the live streams to learn how to make money; Traditional financial traders will keep a close eye on the live streams, trying to understand this 24/7 market teeming with perpetual contracts, tokenized stocks, and stock-linked memes; Developers will stay in the live streams to observe the latest trends in culture and consumer demand; Venture capitalists will be compelled to watch live streams to appear "trendy" (an essential survival skill for the new generation of VCs) and to find the future form of capital formation. The rise of social trading apps will provide a continuous driving force for this wave. Audiences will naturally place more trust in creators with verifiable track records, although track records are by no means the sole criterion—just as the most popular chess creators (GothamChess and the Botez sisters) are not the most skilled chess masters, but they are the best at telling chess stories (this principle also applies to the entire esports content field). Secondly, the logic of capital allocation will be completely reshaped. When recruiting talent, trading firms will prioritize traders with publicly documented successful track records on the blockchain, rather than betting on newcomers without a track record. Family offices and foundations will gradually abandon passive index funds and opaque traditional fund managers, embracing publicly available, high-profit-generating asset management vaults on the blockchain. Venture capital firms that cannot provide a strong narrative for their portfolio projects (Portcos) in the context of new media will be marginalized and ultimately eliminated in the competition for high-quality projects. Finally, some people will still lose money. Yes, this will never change; the market is ultimately the market. The vast majority of active traders are destined to lose money, and wealth will always flow from the impulsive and blind to the wise and calm. Welcome to the world of order books, have fun! But that's perfectly fine. My assertion about this super trend isn't that "everyone will become a trader" or "everyone will make money." My argument is that this will become a completely new market structure, gradually swallowing up traditional markets under the wave of globalization and widespread socialization. Don't get hung up on the literal meaning of these numbers; they're just there to illustrate my point: if in today's financial markets, institutional funds account for 90% of trading volume, and 90% of profits are concentrated in the hands of the top 10% of institutions, then in the future, 90% of the trading volume will be driven by what are now called "retail" funds, but 90% of the profits will still go to the top 10% of funds. Just as MrBeast's live-action "The Squid Game" easily surpassed the Netflix original in viewership, if he were to establish a market maker in the future, he could very well earn more money than Citadel. My advice: Put away your arrogance and prejudice. Stop criticizing the public offering and trading of Meme Coin, and don't belittle those young creators with curly hair. Whether you like it or not, please recognize and accept this trend. Try to position yourself at the forefront of this era—because the giant wave of retail trading is roaring in, and instead of drowning in pride, ride the wave and conquer it.