Predicting the current state of the startup market: Currently, VCs are in the stage of seeking products with their funding.

Author: Tykoo Source: X, @0xTykoo

Regarding startups in prediction markets, for a new asset class, we're currently in the stage where VCs are raising funds and seeking products.

1. Paradigm wants to invest in Moonshot, Axiom, or Bonkbot, which specialize in prediction markets—an opportunity similar to GMGN for the meme era.

2. Boost VC wants to invest in polymarket funds or launch one themselves.

3. YZ Lab was previously focusing on the BNB trading market itself.

3. YZ Lab was previously working on the BNB trading market itself.

(Essentially, GTM differentiates itself) I recently chatted with @LeotheHorseman on @Sea_Bitcoin's show, and they mentioned some ideas, which I'll share here: - In prediction markets, we can build like a Lego set in DeFi, using my tickets as collateral for loans to extract USDC and further inflate market probabilities, similar to a revolving loan. A small amount of money can inflate the probability of a market with a few clicks; essentially, it's about creating publicity. - Privacy-protecting betting, similar to the anonymous betting on Aster that people are currently exploring, protecting the privacy of insiders in prediction markets. - Incentivize those who open markets. For example, I could suggest that "Hu Chenfeng opens a Twitter account/joins the crypto community before June next year," and then I could open a market for him and receive 1% of the transaction fees. - Similar to developing social features or creating SDKs for various exchange platforms, essentially providing an underlying layer for product development, enabling clients to handle traffic and front-end development for TOB/C. - Following the above logic, refactor various social platforms, such as creating a live streaming platform, which is logically more consistent than Pump. - Leo also mentioned using prediction markets for governance, which I found particularly interesting. Selecting leaders and management/using real money to elect DAO governance. In reality, there are two types of startups in the prediction market: one is building the market itself, and the other is selling shovels (tools for marketing). The former relies mainly on differentiation, while the latter has stronger certainty. Differentiation in the market itself mainly occurs on three levels: - First, the infrastructure layer. You'll see various attempts to launch without permission, oracles using AI for settlement, etc. - Second, GTMs targeting regional markets, such as Europe, America, Russia, etc. Each region naturally has its own focus. - Third, product-level gameplay innovation. This includes things like swiping up and down to access the market, betting on either side, hardware wallets competing in a single market, and various gambling-like mini-games entering the market. All of the above ideas fall into this category. The idea of ​​selling shovels is generally more practical and certain to generate profits: - Bots that follow large traders, growing from Telegram and gradually evolving into data-driven tool products. - Robots that perform arbitrage in different markets, similar to NOF1, allowing agents to express opinions and leveraging a mutual fund/meme for GTM (Global Markets). - Products that sell information to the financial markets, generating positive externalities from prediction market information. - Also, there are various prediction market analysis tools; targeting different verticals, such as football, can effectively identify user data needs.