Let me talk about my thoughts on US stocks

Source: Daoshuo Blockchain

In the comments of yesterday's article, an old reader pointed out that there was a serious mistake in my statement of Buffett's holdings.

I later checked the data on the Internet and found that what I said in the exchange on Saturday, "the market value of Buffett's holdings (tradable shares) is several trillion", was wrong.

According to the latest data, the market value of Buffett's tradable shares is indeed only about a few hundred billion US dollars.

Regarding the data, I will verify and verify it more rigorously in the future.

I would like to thank this reader here and apologize to the audience.

This reader listened so carefully and attentively, and it was very touching to find such a mistake. This should be because he had carefully studied and thought about this kind of news beforehand, so he could be so sensitive. This spirit is worth learning!

As for why Buffett holds a high cash position, I remember that a reader also asked a similar question during a certain exchange last year.

In fact, Buffett has repeatedly explained his behavior, and the reasons are nothing more than the following:

- He felt that the price of certain stocks was too high or he felt that the company behind the stock had undergone fundamental changes that he was not happy with, so he sold it.

- He needed cash for tax and other reasons, so he sold some stocks.

- He found stocks with better investment value, so he changed positions and sold some stocks to free up cash for acquisitions.

- He found that he made a serious mistake in his understanding of the company behind a certain stock, so he sold it.

In addition, Buffett has repeatedly emphasized that he never knows how to predict the future trend of the US stock market, nor does he know when the Federal Reserve will raise or lower interest rates, nor does he know how to predict the next trend of the US economy.

However, the outside world always does not believe his statement.

As for the fact that many times the outside world has discovered that whenever Buffett holds a large amount of cash, something unexpected will happen to the US stock market next. I think that may be because Buffett has reached a certain level and does not need to predict the general trend at all. He can perceive changes that ordinary people cannot feel just by the stock prices of certain stocks.

The ancient saying "one leaf can tell the coming of autumn" may be this truth.

As for the US stock market, I also shared my own operation in the communication last Saturday:

I think the current US stock price is definitely not low. I can't judge it specifically. I feel unsure and uneasy to hold it in my hands, so I sold all the various indexes I held. Even if it can rise to the sky next, let it go. For a period of time, I will not look at the index.

As for individual stocks, I have Alibaba, Tesla and some other stocks.

As for Alibaba, I remember that I once said in a communication at the end of last year or the beginning of this year that among the artificial intelligence companies in China, I would probably only buy two: one is Alibaba and the other is ByteDance.

Because in my opinion, the founders of these two companies have extraordinary foresight and cognition.

It's a pity that ByteDance didn't go public, so I only bought Alibaba.

As for Tesla, I wrote in my article a long time ago that I was very optimistic about it.

But now Musk's passionate and deep involvement in politics is really a headache.

The key is:

His way of intervening in politics is not ordinary collusion between government and business, but to rectify the bloated government of the United States in an idealistic way, and to cut off a large number of civil servants who are idle, do nothing, and get paid for nothing.

In addition, he has offended the Democratic Party, and he is also offending people on the Republican side.

This blow is too wide, how many grudges will be made?

If any of the people he offended can gain power in the future, it is very likely that he will kill Musk and his company.

So I sold half of Tesla, but I still kept half.

What Musk has done during this period reminds me of Shang Yang.

Shang Yang's reforms successfully established the Qin system, and it can even be said that he pioneered the "hundred generations all follow the Qin system", but Shang Yang's personal ending was tragic. He was eventually removed by the old nobles he had offended.