Bloomberg's ETF analysts now estimate a 75% chance of spot Ethereum ETF approval, a significant increase from their previous 25% prediction.
Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, notes that the SEC has changed its stance on denying spot Ethereum ETFs. This has led to a rush among issuers to finalise their applications before the May 23 deadline.
Politicisation of Crypto Policies Shifts SEC Stance on Ethereum ETF Approval
The Biden Administration’s recent anti-crypto policy has made the approval process more political. Balchunas suggests that this increased politicisation is behind the SEC’s sudden reversal.
Earlier sentiment was pessimistic about Ethereum’s chances for spot ETF approval. Polymarket data indicated just an 11% chance of approval this morning. However, market implied odds now exceed 50%, coinciding with a strengthening ETH/BTC ratio.
Inevitable Ethereum ETF Approval: Deciphering Signals Amid Political Pressure
Despite political pressure influencing the SEC, many believe Ethereum’s ETF approval has been inevitable for some time. Last October, the approval of commodity futures-based ETH ETF products indicated Ethereum’s non-security status, hinting at future spot product approvals.
Experts are now confident in the approval of the Ethereum ETF, with consensus forming around an imminent approval likely to occur this Thursday.
Ethereum's spot ETF approval seems poised for confirmation, though political motivations raise questions about the stability and predictability of the regulatory environment.
Ethereum has surged by 20% amid speculation that the SEC will approve a spot ETF. At the time of writing, the trading price of ETH is $3,685.