Author: 0xFacai
Hyperliquid has no shortage of new narratives.
TradeXYZ today announced the launch of its own deployed prediction market, Events, under the deployment name txyz. The initial contracts cover up/down events for stocks, commodities, and pre-IPOs, with sports, political, and economic events to be added later.

Traders can hold spot, borrow USDC, trade pre-IPO perpetual contracts, and then use the event market to hedge earnings reports or bet on sports outcomes within the same account.
Traders can hold spot, borrow USDC, trade pre-IPO perpetual contracts, and then use the event market to hedge earnings reports or bet on sports outcomes.
... Since its initial deployment, Hyperliquid's prediction market has remained relatively quiet, but the addition of TradeXYZ has given the community hope, given that this team almost single-handedly brought Hyperliquid into the mainstream financial arena. The launch of Events has also officially ignited competition among HIP-4 deployers. Different Market Owners HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's proposed improvement for prediction markets. A common question arises: Hyperliquid already has its own HIP-4 market deployed, so why is TradeXYZ able to deploy another one? The answer lies in the division of labor between the protocol layer and the market operation layer. Hyperliquid's own deployed markets are called official markets. Third-party markets like txyz share the same infrastructure, HyperCore, with HyperCore handling order matching, balances, holdings, and final on-chain redemption. The difference lies in who operates the specific market. HIP-4 has a fixed data template that specifies what text the prediction market can display, how event probabilities are named (e.g., Yes/No, Up/Down), and which keywords can be entered. Within these boundaries, third-party deployers can choose templates, set parameters and rates, publish result determination methods, and decide which events to participate in, when to stop trading, and which data source to reference. After the event results are obtained, the data source does not automatically trigger contract redemption. The deployer or an authorized settlement sub-deployer (a role specifically responsible for settlement) needs to submit the settlement results to HyperCore, which verifies permissions and then writes the results on-chain. Therefore, "third-party deployment" means that the terms, judgments, and settlement submissions for the specific market are handled by a third party, similar to the relationship between Hyperliquid's main site and various HIP-3 exchanges. Hyperliquid manages the underlying trading rules, while the deployer operates the market. Mechanism: A binary event has two outcomes: Yes and No. Collateral can be split into two complementary "outcome tokens." Assuming the price of Yes is 0.63, the price of No corresponds to 0.37. Buying Yes at 0.63 is economically equivalent to selling No at 0.37. HyperCore merges the liquidity from both sides into a single order book. Settlement upon maturity is also straightforward. When `settleFraction = 1`, each Yes token is redeemed for one quoted asset, and No tokens are zero; when `settleFraction = 0`, the result is the opposite. Some templates also allow settlement values between 0 and 1, allowing multiple candidate results (such as who will win the US Open) to form a single question, with each result having its own order book. HIP-4 divides the "settlement determination" into two steps. The market first calculates the result from the declared data source according to the publicly available method; the deployer then converts the result into a settlement value for on-chain use and submits it to HyperCore. TradeXYZ's daily Up/Down market provides a concrete example. According to the documentation, the system reads the five closed one-minute candlesticks before settlement, calculates the average of the high, low, and closing prices for each candlestick, and then calculates the arithmetic mean of the five results. This price must be strictly higher than the strike price for a "Yes" trade to win; if the two are equal or the average price is lower, a "No" trade wins. This five-minute window reduces the ability of the last trade or momentary fluctuations to affect settlement. In the early days of the sports market, ESPN was used as the data source. There are separate templates and specific clauses for handling match postponements, cancellations, draws, or result corrections. HIP-4 deployers like TradeXYZ can integrate Events with spot trading, lending, and HIP-3 contracts into the same account, allowing traders to simultaneously express continuous price judgments and discrete results at a specific point in time. This is the fundamental difference between HIP-4 and traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Although these two traditional prediction markets have also started operating PerpDEX businesses, they still have a long way to go in terms of liquidity, user mindset, and trading experience compared to Hyperliquid. Competitive Landscape TradeXYZ's leverage lies in the existing HIP-3 market. Events can obtain continuous prices from these perpetual contracts and also integrate event trading into existing user accounts. It chose to enter the market with up/down events in stocks, commodities, and pre-IPOs, then expand to sports, political, and economic events, following a path from financial trading to real-world outcomes. According to Loris.tools, Events captured 15% of the trading volume on its first day. Two other third-party deployers, Outcome and Skew, held 75% and 3.5% respectively. Outcome was one of the earliest HIP-4 deployers, launching on August 29th, giving it a first-mover advantage. Since its launch, Outcome has offered a total of $1 million in trading incentives, and its cumulative trading volume currently exceeds $20 million. Skew.trade received 500,000 HYPE tokens from Hyperion DeFi. Formerly known as Sharp terminal, a Polymarket trading terminal, the project later shifted towards HIP-4. Currently on the waitlist, it only offers markets for betting on price increases or decreases. With the increasing variety and liquidity of markets, Hyperliquid is expected to gain a foothold in the prediction market. For Polymarket and Kalshi, retaining traders who can bet and hedge within the same Hyperliquid account requires a more compelling reason.