How do you view the changes in the future development of the industry after the Ethereum ETF is approved? First of all, let me say the conclusion: In my opinion, the market will usher in a long period of "copycat" season, and the bull market is in full swing, but the process will not be so beautiful. Why? Next, let me talk about my personal observations:
1. The market response after the Bitcoin ETF was approved was not as grand as expected. The violent bull market that everyone expected did not come as expected, but it is obvious that the volatility of Bitcoin has decreased, and the market's ability to undertake is getting stronger. The mysterious power of Wall Street behind it has become everyone's "bottom-line" guarantee for the stability of Bitcoin.
Because BTC is a pure asset attribute and lacks a complete ecological support behind it, the secondary market expectations of BTC seem to be out of touch with the primary market that everyone is building. In the short term, BTC's "gain" effect on the market cannot be extended to the primary price investment market, especially to the mainstream Ethereum Lego ecological market, the correlation is even weaker.
However, the approval of the Ethereum ETF is very different? On the one hand, ETH's deflation will directly affect the activity of the primary market. Ethereum price growth, layer2 The advantage of low gas will be highlighted and will indirectly drive the development of the layer2 market. The reduction in Ethereum circulation will intensify the internal competition of Restaking and AVS interest-bearing tracks and drive value growth. Ethereum is in the hands of incremental funds and is used to invest in and support compliant top DeFi projects, etc.
If this example seems far-fetched, you just need to understand that the value of Ethereum today is generated little by little by this huge primary Build market behind it. Conversely, ETH's own asset price and circulation audience will also bring a steady stream of users, funds, and talent resources to the industry ecosystem. This is the fundamental reason why Ethereum ETF will relatively promote the arrival of the "copycat season" Because.
2. The "copycat" coins mentioned here, I would like to refer to some "mainstream coins" that have VC support, team building, but are not highly valued by the market before the Token is issued, and the coin price is low after the Token is issued and cannot be supported by value. Simply put, the passage of the Ethereum ETF can attract mainstream funds to flow into the huge ecosystem built by Ethereum and drive the continued growth of value coins. (Whether the curse that value coins are not as good as MeMe coins can be broken in one fell swoop.
However, the ideal is beautiful, but it is not easy to let mainstream funds flow into the ecosystem and drive the entrepreneurial ecosystem of web3. The "21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act" passed by the U.S. House of Representatives is abbreviated as The passage of FIT21 contains a lot of information. The bill clearly proposes to provide key consumer protection and promote innovation in the US digital asset ecosystem. A brief interpretation: 1. The CFTC has greater regulatory power. The regulation of digital virtual assets under the "commodity" attribute will be more flexible and free, which is the basis for the long-term "stability" and less variables of the policy end; 2. "Compliance" will become the main theme of the development of the Crypto digital ecosystem, including the construction of institutional systems such as the process and standard specifications for issuing assets. This means that the virtual asset ecosystem will be divided into two extremes: Those who cater to compliance will gradually find solutions to key issues such as KYC and anti-money laundering, and will directly receive ETF gain Buffs. Those who do not cater to compliance will be sanctioned and cracked down on with greater intensity, and will gradually return to the niche market (such as Tornado); Remember, in 2021, when the wave of institutions poured in, we defined the market as the first year of compliance, but the unexpected occurrence of the FTX and Luna incidents delayed this long-cherished wish. With the passage of ETFs, the "compliance" issue still has to be faced.
3. The US government or chaebols will strongly "interfere" in key areas such as stablecoins, exchanges, digital asset custodians, and payment platforms. In the short term, the probability of directly making stablecoins is low, but it is not ruled out that they will indirectly control the market through issuing licenses.
3. If the above conjectures are true, it can be predicted that:
In the short term, the secondary market of Crypto will be polarized, and some behind-the-scenes dealers will increase their hype before a series of regulatory bills are introduced. MeMe coins and some mainstream coins will have high volatility, and copycats will dance wildly;
In the medium term, some head DeFi, stablecoins, and exchanges will increase their compliance efforts. Value targets with good compliance orientation will have good market performance, and vice versa, they will gradually lose value support;
In the long term, the political color of Crypto will drive the encryption market to cater to the taste preferences of the web2 market little by little, which may disappoint some fundamentalists who adhere to a high degree of decentralization, but expecting policies to bring benefits and being pressed to the ground by policies is a double-edged sword.
web3 native is not an umbrella for fraud and money laundering in the name of decentralization. Under the big stick of compliance, the differentiation of the community and the stratification of products are the general trend. Some very complex technologies and protocols of Crypto are difficult to be influenced by supervision, but the market will only stand on the most mainstream development route. (The choice is actually in the market.
In short, it may be the last carnival of speculators, or a little bit of pressure from the sword of supervision, or the loss of speculative people after high volatility is constrained. Everyone has their own vision for the development of Crypto. Overall, the Crypto market under political guidance will definitely no longer maintain the original dream of pure "decentralization", but it can allow the Crypto market, which has been developing in a mixed order for many years, to eliminate the dross and make it possible for mainstream value coins to shine.
Anais
Weatherly
Joy
Alex
Miyuki
Weiliang