Author: Jason Chen, independent researcher Source: X, @jason_chen998
Binance also issued a special report to explore the "culprit" of the bull market - VC coins. It is fairly written. First, focus on the current market value to 2030. The entire market will unlock 155 billion U.S. dollars, which is an extremely terrifying dumping. The main reason is the extremely high opening FDV and extremely low initial circulation. At least according to the reason pointed out in the Binance report, it is because VCs have already valued it before TGE. Value for money at a ridiculous price. I also sent a long tweet a few days ago to discuss this topic and countermeasures. If you are interested, you can read it. In fact, I think it is really a very abnormal and false prosperity market. On the one hand, the whole people boycott VC coins; on the other hand, A large number of VC friends I contacted were complaining all day long about not being able to make money. The project owners and investors were all broken because of the lock-up (I even saw them selling at a 10% discount). They were trying to find ways to sell coins OTC and find someone to take over.
Let me sort out this logic again: The project party wants to raise funds - VC pushes up the valuation - TGE reaches its peak after opening - retail investors are cut off -VC sells coins OTC. Fuck, don’t you think it’s magical? After so much effort, a project with a valuation of tens of billions of dollars was created, but no one in the entire industry chain seems to be able to really benefit from it, and everyone is busy "cutting off"? As the "initiator", VC Coin was beaten and scolded. At this time, everyone couldn't help but ask, "What are you trying to do?"
I myself have participated in several "VC coin" projects, and many of them have received very low-priced chips in the seed round. You ask me, do you feel comfortable? It’s great to see the book assets rising one after another, and I feel happy, but I can’t sell them. It’s useless. In the end, after working hard for several years, I finally unlocked and retained 10% of the assets. That’s why I can’t help but ask. "What are your pictures of TM"?
If VCs would not "induce" entrepreneurs to accept such high valuations from the beginning, and if TGE would not be so expensive and follow an upward curve, the big deal would be much earlier Unlocking some will save you 10% in the end anyway, so what’s the difference between unlocking something and struggling for three years at its peak?
As a victim of VC coins (second-level cut) and beneficiary (first-level investment), I have often thought about this issue recently, but gradually I It is found that, at least for now, this is a dead end. The reasons for the dead end are:
1. The prosperity of Web3 capital market development and the extreme scarcity of high-quality projects A big mismatch
2. There is a huge mismatch between the prosperity of Web3 capital market development and its real value creation
Let me talk about the first point first. I tweeted the day before yesterday that more than 1 million tokens have been issued in just 2 months, because Web3 is extremely low The threshold for asset issuance is too low for projects to issue tokens, and most of them will return to zero. In the short term, due to the economic downturn in traditional industries and the great "wealth creation effect" and exit speed of Web3, many problems will arise. Money is pouring in, there is a lot of money, there are many projects, but there are very few good projects, so all the money will be poured into individual projects and they will charge high prices to compete for share, so that the tide will lift all boats. We can see that the typical portraits of this round of super financing that can really get tens of millions of dollars are executives from big companies + professors from famous schools, and with the blessing of top-notch VCs, it is precisely such a king-level project that "must "Getting on the exchange eventually led to such a situation, and many "naive" entrepreneurs who had just entered Web3 to make money were deceived by appearances. After reading too many financing news, they really thought that starting a business in the currency circle was just three programmers. You can easily raise 30 million by doing a demo for 3 months. Good projects are estimated to be so high, and a lot of bad projects will follow suit.
Let’s talk about point 2, No one mentioned Mass Adoption this round, and value coins have also become a "funny word" , yo? Mr. Kong Yiji, are you here for value investing again? As a revolutionary technology, blockchain has always been expected by everyone to change the old world. In the last bull market, everyone looked forward to a world where everything can be capitalized. In the last bull market, everyone looked forward to a fair, credible and confirmed world. A world that cannot be tampered with, and in this bull market, what is the new world you are looking forward to? What I see is a world where people all over the world want to send their own chain but can’t explain why they must send it. The lack of innovation and external value has created a world where PVP that forcibly empowers narratives can run faster than anyone else. Once there is no positive value and the competition starts to run faster, even if a team that really wants to do things seriously encounters an irreversible drop in currency prices, they will only think of starting over and working on new projects. Anyway, the threshold for issuing coins and listing on the stock exchange is It is not that high. In the traditional world, Apple, Google, and Amazon will cherish their hard-won listing opportunities, and they are not confident that they can continue to do several Nasdaq-listed projects, so even if they experience the darkest moments of the downturn, After persisting and going through decades of development, we finally made a business that really changed the world and it was actually reflected in the stock price.
In the end, various factors contributed to the current embarrassing dead situation. How to solve it? Who is the solutioner? We don’t know. It seems that VCs are the main culprits of the mutually exclusive bull market, but VCs are just a follower in this deadlock. So am I, and so are you.
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