Coinbase: Crypto Market Outlook for 2026

Source: Coinbase; Compiled by: Jinse Finance

Coinbase recently released its "2026 Crypto Market Outlook" report. In the report, Coinbase delves into the various factors that will shape the crypto economy in the coming year, from detailed outlooks for BTC, ETH, and SOL, to the latest developments in regulation, market structure, and tokenization. Furthermore, we will analyze the impact of Bitcoin's four-year cycle, the risks posed by quantum computing, and the impact of major platform upgrades, such as Ethereum's latest Fusaka hard fork and Solana's upcoming Alpenglow.

The following are the key points of the report:

Market Trends

Cautiously Optimistic:

Coinbase believes that the US economy remains resilient, and continuously improving labor productivity can buffer the impact of slowing economic growth. Therefore, we believe that the cryptocurrency market landscape in the first half of 2026 is closer to "1996" than "1999" (that is, we are optimistic about next year), but we also acknowledge that there is still considerable uncertainty in the market.

Regulatory Progress:

In 2025, we witnessed landmark developments in the US and global regulatory landscape, leading to the emergence of new spot cryptocurrency ETFs, digital asset treasuries (DATs), and driving broader institutional participation. We believe that a clearer global framework will continue to transform institutional practices in strategy, risk, and compliance in 2026.

Institutional Adoption:

DAT expanded its buyer base in 2025, but recently valuation-driven consolidation has emerged. We expect a "DAT 2.0" model to emerge in 2026, where future versions will no longer be limited to simple asset accumulation, but will focus on the professional trading, storage, and procurement of sovereign block space, viewing block space as a key commodity in the digital economy.

Token Economics 2.0:

With policy clarity, the economic interests of token holders are linked to platform usage, and protocols are moving towards value capture—including mechanisms such as fee sharing, buybacks, and "buy-and-burn." We believe this marks an emerging shift from purely narrative-driven beta models to persistent, revenue-linked models.

Technological Change

Privacy Needs:

As institutional adoption increases, users' demands for control and confidentiality are also growing.

We anticipate continued development of technologies such as Zero-Knowledge Proofs (ZKP) and Fully Homomorphic Encryption (FHE), and a significant increase in the use of on-chain privacy as cryptographic infrastructure becomes more widespread. AI × Cryptocurrency: Autonomous agent systems require open, programmable payment methods. Protocols such as x402 enable high-frequency microtransaction settlement and support agents that can launch, manage, and secure on-chain services. **Application-Specific Chains:** The proliferation of specialized blockchain networks is rapidly reshaping the competitive landscape of crypto infrastructure. We believe the ultimate goal is to build a network architecture with native interoperability and shared security, rather than an endless system composed of countless isolated systems. **Tokenization:** Real-world asset tokenization (RWA) saw significant growth in 2025, with tokenized equity representing an emerging field. Its rapid growth prospects are highly attractive given its atomic composability, with DeFi-style loan-to-value (LTV) ratios often far exceeding traditional margin frameworks.

The Next Big Event

The Combinatorial Nature of Crypto Derivatives:

Perpetual contracts are moving from isolated leveraged trading to a core DeFi function—combined with lending, staking, and hedging. With the continued growth of global retail investor participation in US stock trading, we believe that equity perpetual futures contracts are poised to become the preferred choice for the next generation of retail traders, offering both 24/7 trading and capital efficiency.

Prediction Markets:

Trading volumes are expected to expand further in 2026 as changes in US tax policy may prompt users to shift to these derivatives-based markets. While market fragmentation may pose a risk, we believe prediction market aggregators are poised to become the dominant interface layer, with weekly trading volumes potentially reaching billions of dollars.

Stablecoins and Payments:

Stablecoins have solidified their position as the primary use case in the crypto ecosystem. Our stochastic model predicts that the total market capitalization of stablecoins is expected to reach approximately $1.2 trillion by the end of 2028. More new application scenarios are expected to emerge in areas such as cross-border transaction settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms. Finally, we believe the crypto industry is now ready to move from theory to practice and will increasingly integrate with the core financial system. The future opportunities are enormous, but their realization depends on strong execution in areas such as product quality, regulatory compliance, and user-centric design. By focusing on these areas, we can ensure that the next wave of innovation benefits everyone, anytime, anywhere.