Author: Biraajmaan Tamuly, CoinTelegraph; Compiler: Deng Tong, Golden Finance
Bitcoin on-chain data and technical data suggest that new all-time highs are imminent.
Glassnode data shows that most Bitcoin wallet users are increasing their holdings of BTC.
The bearish divergence on the daily chart suggests that momentum is weakening, raising questions about whether BTC can rebound to the $120,000 to $130,000 range.
After forming a double bottom pattern on the 1-hour chart, the BTC price rebounded above $105,000 during the U.S. market trading session.
Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Available liquidity around $102,500 has been swept up, which could set the stage for new highs in Bitcoin prices this week.
Bitcoin is currently range-bound between $106,300 and $100,600, similar to its previous range-bound move between $97,900 and $92,700. The price action patterns can be summarized into three different scenarios:
A range low and range high resulted in an immediate trend reversal.
A double bottom formed after the range high ($97,900 and $107,144) was formed.
A double bottom pattern formed above the range low and swept through the internal liquidity level but did not reach the bottom.
Bitcoin price fractal analysis. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
In the next 24 hours, Bitcoin may consolidate between $103,500 and $105,200 (orange box), which is exactly the same as the previous sideways trend between $95,800 and $97,300. If this pattern continues, the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through $107,000 may increase, and it may even break through $110,000 this week to set a new high.
On the contrary, failure to hold $103,500 could lead to a retest of the $102,000 support level. This would be considered a price fractal failure and could see a new low below $102,000 in the coming days.
Glassnode reveals a significant shift in Bitcoin investor behavior, with the latest cumulative trend score chart showing that small holders holding less than 1 BTC are joining the bullish trend with a score of 0.55. Large holders holding 100-1,000 BTC and 1,000-10,000 BTC show strong cumulative scores of 0.9 and 0.85, respectively.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score. Source: Glassnode
Only 1-10 BTC holding groups are still dispersed. The heat map transitions from blue (dispersion) to red (accumulation), indicating that market confidence is increasing. Historically, this trend usually precedes BTC price increases.
However, cryptocurrency analyst Bluntz pointed out that a bearish divergence has emerged on the daily chart, which may dispel BTC's hopes of setting a new all-time high this week. A bearish divergence occurs when the price is forming higher highs, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is forming higher lows, meaning that buying pressure is starting to wane as prices surge.
Bitcoin bearish divergence at Bluntz Capital. Source: X.com
Similarly, Bitcoin analyst Matthew Hyland noted that bulls need to push prices higher in the coming weeks if they want to remain in control. "BTC has now reached a critical juncture and may need to move to $120,000-$130,000 in the coming weeks to allow the RSI indicator to make higher highs and avoid any confirmation of a weekly bearish divergence," Hyland said.
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