Author: Murphy Source: X, @Murphychen888
Yesterday's brainstorming session by all the teachers was extremely exciting. As a primary school student, I listened carefully throughout the whole process and took notes seriously. Including the logical analysis of macro data explanations, the relationship between historical monetary policies and market changes, and the key issues in the ETH spot review process, etc. Everyone expressed their opinions, and there was a collision of opinions in the middle, which was completely different from the form and content of other Spaces I had heard before.
I was also fortunate to be invited to take over the microphone in the middle, and shared some superficial views on the top price forecast of BTC in this cycle. To sum up briefly, it is to look at it from two aspects:
1. From the perspective of miners' profits; high profits help miners to recover cash flow and prepare for upgrading to higher computing power. Then through calculation, when BTC reaches more than 90,000 US dollars, it can allow mainstream mining machines to quickly recover their investment in 12-16 months. This is the threshold of "high profit". At the same time, the integer mark of 100,000 US dollars is also an integer psychological mark expected by most people, so 90,000-100,000 US dollars is an important price range.
2. Starting from the chip structure; currently 2.6 million BTC are accumulated in the range of 60,000-6.7 million US dollars, accounting for 16% of the total circulation. This is a huge accumulation area, indicating that a lot of chips are changed hands here. If the chips here are not fully digested in the future, then when the BTC price reaches 120,000-130,000 US dollars, it means that the chips here have an average of 200% unrealized profit. The trading psychology of "doubling the principal" easily causes the market to generate concentrated selling pressure at this position.
In addition, I mentioned a BTC top price algorithm model in Space yesterday, and I can also share it with you here:
The algorithm model does not mean that this round of cycles will definitely reach the predicted position. It can only be said that the model has never made mistakes in the verification of historical data. On March 14, the high point of this round calculated by the model was expected to be around US$134,000; and by May 22, the top price had moved up to US$146,800. This is an easter egg for your reference.
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