Author: André Dragosch, Head of Research, Bitwise Europe; Translated by: Shaw, Jinse Finance
The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has just hit its highest level since 2020—and this is no coincidence.
This week I invited my colleague Dr. André Dragosch to guest-write this issue's Chief Investment Officer Memo. André is the Head of Research, Bitwise Europe, and he conducts crypto market analysis with his strong macro research background and solid quantitative capabilities. I'll be back next time! — Matt Hougan
One of the biggest controversies surrounding Bitcoin is whether it truly qualifies as "digital gold." Those who support this view mostly argue from a theoretical perspective: Bitcoin, like gold, possesses scarcity, fungibility, and divisibility, and can be held independently without relying on a third-party custodian. Opponents, however, raise more practical questions: Bitcoin's historical performance does not align with gold. They point to Bitcoin's numerous 50%-80% pullbacks as a counter-argument; they also emphasize that Bitcoin's lifespan is far shorter than gold's, and its acceptance as a store of value is also less. However, a recent key event may bridge this divide. This phenomenon suggests that, in truly critical market conditions, Bitcoin can indeed behave like "digital gold." And now, precisely, is the moment when this attribute may truly come into play. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold: August saw turbulent macroeconomic markets. The yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasury bonds rose, prompting US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant to intervene in the market and increase purchases of long-term bonds. This intervention signals that we may be entering a new era of financial repression and yield curve control. Following this intervention, Bitcoin recorded its largest weekly gain since March 2024, rising 22.4%. However, many investors overlooked one crucial point: in this round of market activity, Bitcoin and gold moved in a highly synchronized manner. Specifically, gold rose by approximately 5% in a single week, while the stock market declined. Further analysis reveals a highly significant statistical finding: the three-month rolling correlation between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to its highest level in nearly six years. Bitcoin's correlation with gold rises to a near six-year high. Bitcoin's correlation with gold (90-day rolling) Source: Bitwise Asset Management, data from Bloomberg. Data range: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026. Gold prices are based on spot gold prices. Note: Correlation coefficients between -0.5 and 0.5 are traditionally defined as "low" or "no" correlation. The last time Bitcoin and gold achieved such a high correlation was after multiple rounds of fiscal and monetary stimulus policies were implemented during the COVID-19 crisis in 2020. In other words, the two periods when governments implemented substantial interventions in the macroeconomic landscape coincided with the two periods when the correlation between gold and Bitcoin reached its peak! Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has fallen to a one-year low, meaning that hard assets and the stock market have become somewhat decoupled. The argument that "Bitcoin is merely a leveraged technology investment" may no longer hold water. The correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks has fallen from its peak. Bitcoin's correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index (90-day rolling) Source: Bitwise Asset Management, data from Bloomberg. Data range: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026. The Nasdaq 100 index is represented by the Nasdaq 100 Total Return Index.
Note: Correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is generally defined as "low" or "no" correlation.
Furthermore, Bitcoin exhibits a significant negative correlation with the US Dollar Index (DXY), meaning that downward pressure on the US dollar is beneficial for Bitcoin (and gold).
Bitcoin and the US Dollar Maintain Negative CorrelationBitcoin vs. US Dollar Correlation (90-Day Rolling)
Source: Bitwise Asset Management, data from Bloomberg. Data range: April 13, 2015 to August 31, 2026. The US dollar is represented by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
Note: Correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is generally defined as "low" or "no" correlation.Data reveals an important fact to us. First, Bitcoin is not equivalent to gold. Gold is a mature asset with thousands of years of history, while Bitcoin is a relatively new technological product with less than 20 years of history. When macroeconomic risks are no longer the focus of the market, Bitcoin and gold may perform very differently.
However, when the situation becomes severe and macroeconomic forces dominate, facing the ever-increasing risk of currency devaluation, investors are becoming less and less differentiated between Bitcoin and gold in their asset allocation. In such scenarios, Bitcoin has recently begun to behave as an amplified version of gold.
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Weatherly投资可以零风险吗?这在传统DEX和CEX都是难以做到的……
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Catherine