Big Ideas 2026: The Position of Blockchain in Future Trends

“2026 Big Ideas” is the tenth annual report in ARK Invest’s flagship research series, designed to identify and interpret key technological developments reshaping the global economy. Each year, ARK Invest cuts through short-term market noise to find core signals, focusing on long-term innovation platforms—as exponential technological innovation converges, markets transform, and new opportunities emerge. The report is not a prediction of gradual change, but rather a framework for understanding step-like shifts in growth.

In this annual report, ARK Invest explores 13 major ideas spanning fields such as artificial intelligence, robotics, energy, blockchain, space, and biology. Based on research in public and private markets, these ideas are intertwined, redefining productivity, capital allocation, and competitive advantage across industries.

ARK Invest will analyze how these technologies move from the experimental stage to large-scale application, and how their integration is accelerating the process of change at a faster pace than generally expected. The future is not something that happens overnight; those who foresee trends early will have the opportunity to seize future opportunities. A personal experience is that when ARK Invest launched the ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF to explore the stars, we were busy indulging in the nihilism and entertainment of the metaverse, ultimately ending up with nothing but a mess. Fortunately, today's blockchain and digital finance are not only the cornerstone of emerging asset classes but also the foundation of future finance, effectively balancing the digital development of traditional finance with the promotion and implementation of innovative trends. Therefore, we combine the 2025 & 2026 Big Ideas to clarify the positioning of "public blockchain" under ARK Invest's future trends. Following this, we compiled the development overview section of "2026 Big Ideas" and the section on public blockchain: Bitcoin, tokenized assets, and DeFi applications, to examine the future trends of blockchain and finance, as well as data, scenarios, and implementation.

I. The Positioning of Public Blockchain Technology Innovation

• If AI changes productivity, blockchain changes production relations. Then, for public blockchain, as the financial foundation for multiple technological innovation trends, its importance is self-evident. Native crypto assets built on the blockchain (serving as stores of value, mediums of exchange, and units of account) and smart contract protocols will also grow at a rate of approximately 61% per year, reaching a market size of $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin potentially accounting for 70% of the market. Among these, the market capitalization of smart contracts may grow at a rate of 54% per year, reaching approximately $6 trillion by 2030, with annualized revenue of approximately $192 billion and an average commission rate of 0.75%. With clearer regulations, financial institutions are reassessing their stablecoin and tokenization strategies. Tokenized assets are projected to grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion by 2030, representing approximately 1.38% of all financial assets. By 2025, the supply of stablecoins had grown by about 50%, from $210 billion to $307 billion, and the 30-day moving average of stablecoin trading volume in December was $3.5 trillion, 2.3 times the combined volume of Visa, PayPal, and remittance services. Value capture in digital assets has shifted from the network to applications. The network is increasingly becoming a utility, ceding user economics and profit margins to applications. Application revenue hit a record high in 2025, totaling approximately $3.8 billion. The asset size of DeFi and stablecoin issuers is catching up with many fintech companies. Here is the positioning of public blockchains in the "2026 Big Ideas": With widespread adoption, all currencies and contracts may migrate to public blockchains to realize and verify digital scarcity and proof of ownership. The financial ecosystem may be reconfigured to accommodate the rise of cryptocurrencies (including stablecoins that connect traditional finance and decentralized networks) and smart contracts. These technologies will increase transparency, reduce the impact of capital and regulatory controls, and lower contract execution costs. In such an environment, as more assets become money-like and businesses and consumers adapt to the new financial infrastructure, digital wallets will become increasingly necessary. As these wallets evolve into AI-driven procurement agents, they could become powerful distribution platforms for digital services. Business structures may be challenged.

  

  1.1 The Digital Foundation of Future Trends

  In "2025 Big Ideas," ARK devotes a section to describing how digital wallets will help AI Agents achieve a closed-loop value system.This is just one example derived from blockchain, but it is a microcosm of its future trends—innovative scenarios that leverage blockchain and smart contracts to connect with future trends. ARK Invest research indicates that AI Agent-enabled digital wallets will gain market share from traditional payment methods like credit and debit cards, potentially accounting for 72% of all e-commerce transactions by 2030. Digital wallets are integrating financial services and e-commerce. Based on their consumer-facing businesses, the market values ​​leading digital wallet platforms like Block, Robinhood, and SoFi at $1,800 per user. Beyond integrating traditional banking services such as savings, lending, insurance, investment, and consumption, digital wallets, aided by the AI ​​Agent innovation paradigm, can connect to the global e-commerce and digital consumption value chain of downstream platforms, thus moving the value chain upstream.

  

  (How does Sister Wood view Crypto, AI Agents, and Stablecoins? ARK 2025 Big Ideas Disruptive Innovation Report)

  1.2 Blockchain Financial Infrastructure

  In fact, whether it's Greyscale, Moody's, or BlackRock's 2026 outlook, they all regard stablecoins as the infrastructure of digital finance—this is the core positioning of the underlying blockchain as a public ledger, using the programmability of smart contracts to architect the future of finance.

  

  The "2025 Big Ideas" report devotes considerable space to describing stablecoins, making the 2026 projections unnecessary to discuss: In December 2025, the adjusted 30-day moving average of stablecoin trading volume was $3.5 trillion, 2.3 times the combined volume of Visa, PayPal, and remittance services. By 2030, tokenized assets are projected to grow from $19 billion to $11 trillion, representing approximately 1.38% of all financial assets. The widespread adoption of tokenization is likely to occur with increased regulatory clarity and the development of institutional-grade infrastructure. The future of finance will evolve rapidly with the development of blockchain; stablecoins are no longer niche tools—they are becoming a bridge connecting traditional finance and digital liquidity. Simultaneously, with the continuous expansion of tokenization, traditional financial institutions and technology companies are expanding their on-chain businesses through blockchain infrastructure. What we need to focus on is: How can we leverage tokenization technology to bring real-world assets onto the blockchain and, based on the programmability of smart contracts, obtain the greatest benefits? 1.3 More Than Just a Carrier for Emerging Assets ARK Invest: By 2030, the market value of digital assets could reach $28 trillion, with Bitcoin potentially accounting for 70% of the market. ARK Invest states that, in addition to Bitcoin, the market for smart contract networks and native digital currencies could grow at a rate of approximately 61% annually, reaching $28 trillion by 2030. Value capture for digital assets has shifted from networks to applications. The internet is gradually becoming a public utility, ceding user economics and profit margins to applications. The gap in platform assets between traditional fintech platforms and crypto-native platforms is narrowing, indicating a convergence of traditional and on-chain infrastructure. Simultaneously, the front-end app, back-end DeFi model will become increasingly common, such as Coinbase's Bitcoin-backed lending via the Morpho protocol on Base, and Robinhood's launch of tokenized stock trading. While many are unaware of the existence of blockchain, this may be the ultimate meaning of blockchain as an underlying technology.

  

  II. Overview——The Great Era of Acceleration

  Artificial intelligence is the core driving force, accelerating the development of five major innovation platforms and triggering a turning point in macroeconomic growth. ...p>

  Artificial intelligence is the core driving force, accelerating the development of five major innovation platforms and triggering a turning point in macroeconomic growth.

  Artificial intelligence is the core driving force, accelerating the development of five major innovation platforms and triggering a turning point in macroeconomic growth.

  

  Artificial intelligence is the core driving force, accelerating the development of five major innovation platforms and triggering a turning point in macroeconomic growth.

  

  2.5 Disruptive technologies can promote growth in multiple ways

  Taking autonomous taxis as an example:

  • Accelerating vehicle replacement cycles

  • Transforming driving time into work or leisure time, unleashing human productivity potential

  • Increasing mileage utilization per vehicle by 8 Increased return on capital; shift from personal driving to paid services; transformation of non-market activities into GDP contributions. Thus, every disruptive technology can have profound macroeconomic impacts—the humanoid robot for the home is a prime example. Currently, of the average household maintenance value of approximately $68,000, only $2,600 is included in Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A single humanoid robot in a household could contribute $62,000 to GDP annually. If each of the 90 million homeowners in the United States were equipped with a humanoid robot, GDP could increase by nearly $6 trillion, a 20% increase. If humanoid robots penetrate 80% of American households within five years, GDP growth could accelerate from 2%-3% annually to 5%-6%. 2.6 Technological Revolution Will Drive Another Leap Forward in Real GDP Growth Historically, technological paradigm shifts have triggered structural changes in GDP growth. Within this decade, capital investment driven solely by disruptive innovation platforms could boost annualized real GDP growth by 1.9 percentage points. New capital bases—autonomous taxis, next-generation data centers, and corporate investments in AI agents—will increase the return on invested capital. As other innovations begin to impact growth trajectories, actual real growth could exceed consensus expectations by more than 4 percentage points annually. Each innovation platform—artificial intelligence, public blockchains, robotics, energy storage, and multi-omics technologies—will provide structural support for global growth. Summary: Disruptive Technologies May Become the Dominant Force in Global Markets. Revolutions ushered in modernization and have quintupled the growth rate over the past 125 years, reaching an average of 3%. Today, technological breakthroughs in artificial intelligence and intelligent robotics may once again boost productivity and drive economic growth to a new level in the next 5 to 10 years. ARK Invest projects a growth rate of 7.3% by 2030, compared to the IMF's 3.1%. Thus, disruptive technologies may grow into the dominant force in the global market.

    

    (Charts: Trend of Innovation Sector Share in Global Stock Market Capitalization (2000-2030E), Share of Various Asset Classes (2000-2030E))

    In the article "BlackRock 2026 Global Outlook: Unconventional Investment Paradigms Reconstructed by AI", the prediction of technological innovation for global economic growth is consistent with ARK Invest:

    

    (Chart: Sharpe Ratio Trend Chart (December 2024 - December 2025), Comparison of Annual Average Sharpe Ratio for Different Time Periods)

    Note: The "CoinDesk 10 Index" is a rules-based benchmark index that measures the price performance of the ten largest and most liquid digital assets. The Sharpe ratio is a metric that measures the return per unit of risk for an asset over a specific time period. In the left chart, the Sharpe ratio is calculated by dividing the asset's average return by its standard deviation and then multiplying by the square root of 365 for annualization.

    

    Note: The "CoinDesk 10 Index" is a rules-based benchmark index that measures the price performance of the ten largest and most liquid digital assets. The Sharpe ratio is a metric that measures the return per unit of risk for an asset over a specific time period.

    

    (Charts: Total Potential Market (TAM) and Penetration Rate Projected by Market Capitalization in 2030 (based on assumptions as of December 31, 2024), Total Potential Market (TAM) and Penetration Rate Projected by Market Capitalization in 2030 (based on assumptions as of December 31, 2025))

    Note: "EM" refers to emerging markets.

    Note: "EM" refers to emerging markets.

    

    （Chart: Digital Asset Market Cap Forecast (2025-2030)）

    Key Forecast:

    • According to ARK's forecast, Bitcoin is likely to dominate the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 63% over the next five years, increasing from nearly $2 trillion to approximately $16 trillion by 2030.

      

      The market capitalization of smart contracts could grow at a rate of 54% per year, reaching approximately $6 trillion by 2030, with annualized revenue of approximately $192 billion and an average commission rate of 0.75%. Two to three Layer 1 blockchain smart contract platforms may hold the majority of the market share, but their market capitalization is more attributable to their monetary premium (value storage and reserve asset characteristics) than to discounted cash flow.

    

    IV. Tokenized Assets: Driving Trillions of Dollars in Asset Value

    4.1 The GENIUS Act is prompting financial institutions to reassess their stablecoin and tokenization strategies

    With the regulatory clarity brought by the GENIUS Act, stablecoin trading activity has surged to an all-time high.

    Several companies and institutions have announced plans to launch their own stablecoins, while BlackRock has disclosed the progress of its internal tokenization platform. Major stablecoin issuers and fintech companies such as Tether, Circle, and Stripe have launched or supported Layer 1 blockchains optimized for stablecoins.

    

    (Chart: Stablecoin Weekly Trading Volume Trend (June - December 2025), highlighting key events)

    Key events include: Circle, Bitgo, Paxos, and Ripple receive conditional approval for banking licenses; Stripe's stablecoin Layer "Bridge" applies for a national bank trust license; Tether-backed stablecoin L1 "Plasma" mainnet launch; Larry Fink states BlackRock is developing its own tokenization technology; YouTube supports payments to creators via PayPal's PYUSD; Stripe launches its stablecoin-focused L1 network "Tempo"; SoFi launches...

    SoFiUSD, Western Union announced the launch of a stablecoin on Solana, Circle announced its Layer 1 network "Arc", the GENIUS Act was signed into law, Visa launched native stablecoin settlement on Solana through Circle's USDC, Circle launched its initial public offering (IPO), USDT natively expanded to Solana through LayerZero, Tether launched USAT, Klarna announced plans to launch a stablecoin on Stripe's Tempo, Wyoming launched the US dollar stablecoin "FRNT", JPMorgan launched JPM Coin on Base, SWIFT partnered with Consensys to add a blockchain-based ledger to the SWIFT technology stack, Ethena Labs and Anchorage Digital launched the first GENIUS-compliant stablecoin USDtb, JPMorgan launched a tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, and major Japanese banks launched yen-backed stablecoin plans, etc. Note: "Stablecoins" refer to tokenized assets that maintain parity with a certain pegged asset (usually the US dollar). Stability is achieved through arbitrage mechanisms and collateral reserves. The collateral reserves may be managed by traditional custodians, through on-chain automated mechanisms, or a combination of both. 4.2 Stablecoin transaction volume far exceeds most traditional payment systems. (Chart: Adjusted stablecoin transaction volume compared to traditional payment systems (April 2023 - December 2025)) In December 2025, the 30-day moving average of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume was $3.5 trillion, which is 2.3 times the combined volume of Visa, PayPal, and remittance services. Circle's stablecoin USDC dominates adjusted trading volume, accounting for approximately 60%, followed by Tether's USDT at approximately 35%. In 2025, the supply of stablecoins grew by approximately 50%, from $210 billion to $307 billion, with USDT and USDC accounting for 61% and 25%, respectively. Sky Protocol was the only other stablecoin issuer with a market capitalization exceeding $1 billion by the end of 2025. Notably, PayPal's PYUSD saw its market capitalization grow more than sixfold, reaching $3.4 billion.

  Note: In the chart above, we use adjusted stablecoin trading volume to exclude miner withdrawable value (MEV) and in-exchange trading volume, thus more purely reflecting actual stablecoin transfers between users. Values ​​represent a 30-day moving average of trading volume, sampled monthly. Therefore, these figures may differ from the total for calendar months. Source: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2026, based on data from Artemis Analytics as of December 31, 2025. For informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any specific security or cryptocurrency. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forecasts are inherently limited and should not be relied upon unnecessarily.

Note: In the chart above, we use adjusted stablecoin trading volume to exclude miner withdrawable value (MEV) and in-exchange trading volume, thus more purely reflecting actual stablecoin transfers between users. Values ​​represent a 30-day moving average of trading volume, sampled monthly. Therefore, these figures may differ from the total total for calendar months.

Note: In the chart above, we use adjusted stablecoin trading volume to exclude miner withdrawable value (MEV) and in-exchange trading volume, thus more purely reflecting actual stablecoin transfers between users.

Note: In the chart above, we use adjusted stablecoin trading volume to exclude miner withdrawable value (MEV) and in-exchange trading volume, based on data from Artemis Analytics as of December 31, 2025.

4.3 The tokenized asset market tripled to $19 billion in 2025

(Chart: Trend of Total Value of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWAs) (January - December 2025))

• In 2025, led by US Treasury bonds and commodities, the market value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grew by 208%, reaching $189 billion. ...>



(Charts: Coinbase Bitcoin-backed lending trend on Base (August 2024 - December 2025), Robinhood tokenized equity market capitalization trend (June - December 2025))



V. DeFi



(Charts: Application to Network Revenue Ratio Trend, Application Monthly Revenue Trend (January 2024 - December 2025))

5.2 DeFi and Stablecoin Issuers' Asset Size is Catching Up with Many Fintech Companies

The platform asset gap between traditional fintech platforms and crypto-native platforms is narrowing, indicating that traditional infrastructure and on-chain infrastructure are merging. Decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols such as liquidity staking or lending platforms are attracting institutional funding and expanding rapidly.

The top 50 decentralized finance (DeFi) platforms all have a total value locked (TVL) exceeding $1 billion, and the top 12 platforms all exceed $5 billion. (Chart: Comparison of Asset Size Across Platforms) 5.3 Hyperliquid, Tether, and Pump.fun are among the most revenue-efficient companies globally. In 2025, Hyperliquid generated over $800 million in annual revenue with fewer than 15 employees. Perpetual futures, stablecoins, and memecoins are attracting users and funds at scale, representing on-chain verticals with clear product-market fit. On-chain businesses and protocols are redefining productivity—world-class revenue and profitability can be generated with a double-digit workforce. Led by Hyperliquid, decentralized finance (DeFi) derivatives are taking market share from Binance's perpetual futures market.



（Chart: Comparison of Average Revenue Per Employee in Various Companies）

5.4 Layer 1 is Evolving from a Revenue-Generating Network into a Monetary Asset



（Chart: Comparison of Implicit Network Value and Monetary Premium）