Big Divergence: Up or Down by the End of 2024?

Author: Liu Jiaolian

"Friday, a thunderclap!" Overnight, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics simultaneously released non-farm employment data that exceeded expectations, as well as slightly higher-than-expected unemployment data. It was shocking, and everyone was shocked. A detailed analysis, friends who haven't seen it can click on the link, open the 6.7 Jiaolian internal reference, and take a look. Faced with the expected impact of this data, BTC (Bitcoin) first fluctuated sharply in a short period of time, and then began to dive, and has now fallen back below 70,000 dollars, close to the 69k line.

Wall Street institutions have followed the data performance and obediently postponed the expectation of interest rate cuts to the end of this year in November. Jiaolian looked at BTC, which has been sideways since March, and couldn't help but fall into deep thought.

Look at the red box drawn by Jiaolian in the picture. It is a sideways consolidation channel. From March to November? How many months? 8 months. Amazing coincidence? I wonder if you remember anything?

Review Jiaolian’s 1.9 article "Bitcoin's Big Ups and Downs" and 4.14 article "Cannonballs Sink Positions". You will see that the box is also about 8 months. It is the following picture:

This picture shows the sideways consolidation period experienced after the gold ETF was approved for listing that year. The box length is also more than 8 months.

But we all know that when the final box broke upward, gold started a magnificent 5-year bull market.

However, yesterday's 6.7 Jiaolian Internal Reference also mentioned that the Bitfinex analyst team said that BTC's current bull market will firmly turn to bear and end hastily at the end of the year.

So there is a huge disagreement here: at the end of 2024, when the Federal Reserve turns the bow and sails in the opposite direction, will BTC's 2025 soar into the sky and start a bull market, or fall into hell and enter a long bear market?

Bitfinex's point of view, Jiaolian feels that the logic is not smooth enough. This has been dissected in the internal reference article, so I won't repeat it.

The bull market in 2025 and the bear market in 2026 are the standard models of the power law and the driving rhythm of the 4-year halving cycle. However, in every cycle, some people will criticize this as being too rigid.

In fact, this is also a big myth about this unusual halving cycle, namely the debate on the halving in 2024: Is the increase fading, or is it a super cycle?

After all, this round of BTC's "gold halving" in April 2024 has greatly surpassed gold in the "asset hardness" of BTC, making it the hardest asset known on earth.

The $70,000 in March was sent up by the approval of the US spot ETF at the beginning of the year. The supply tightening effect brought about by the halving in April may not have been reflected yet.

Each halving in the past would bring the bull market to a peak of happiness in about a year and a half. Then it would take about a year to "deleverage" and completely clean up the market.

Precisely like a clock. Tick-tick.

Every time, someone tried to prove that BTC's 4-year cycle was just a coincidence of macro external factors, not the effect of halving internal factors. But every time, all attempts to disrupt BTC's endogenous clock and cycle rhythm failed.

The bull market at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021 ran over countless corpses of short positions. The eternal bull market of Sanjian Capital in early 2021 is now forgotten by no one. In the early summer of 2022, Jiaolian believed that BTC could recover from the Fed's balance sheet reduction, but it was not until 2023 that it began to come true, and the market had long since changed.

BTC has been stubbornly bottoming out 1.5 years before the halving and peaking 1.5 years after the halving, with a 3-year upward trend and a 1-year downward trend, a 4-year cycle. Will its clock-like precise rhythm be broken this time?