Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin price will reach $1 million by 2028

Source: Coindesk; Compiled by: AIMan@黄金财经

Key Points:

• Arthur Hayes believes that the key institution that affects global liquidity and the future of Bitcoin is the Treasury Department, not the Federal Reserve.

• Hayes predicts that the price of Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028 due to increased liquidity and geopolitical factors.

• He believes that the China-US trade agreement will play an important role and achieve real economic transformation through capital controls and foreign investment taxes.

As China and the United States gradually reach a trade agreement, Arthur Hayes has a message for cryptocurrency investors and BTC HODLers who are obsessed with the Fed's policies: The institutions you are paying attention to are wrong.

"The real drama is in the Treasury Department. Don't pay attention to the Fed. It doesn't matter," Hayes said in a recent interview with CoinDesk. "Powell wasn't important in 2022 with a Democrat in office, and he's not important now with a Republican in office."

For Hayes, the Fed has become a supporting role. He believes the real monetary leverage is happening under Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, who is quietly reshaping global liquidity to manage the ballooning U.S. debt burden through repo and auction strategies.

This massive amount of liquidity, coupled with the U.S.'s inability to control spending, is why Hayes says Bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2028.

"All we care about is whether there are more dollars in the system today than yesterday. That's all that matters," Hayes said.

But monetary policy isn't the only catalyst in his view. Hayes believes geopolitical factors have also played a role, especially the stilted trade diplomacy between the U.S. and China. Hayes said that as both sides posturing, they are likely to sign a deal that looks bold on paper but changes nothing in substance.

"On paper, it will be a deal," he said. “Trump needs to prove he’s been tough on China. China needs to prove it’s standing up to the white man.”

After all, China has proven it can withstand more economic pain with its COVID-19 policies. Given the political risk of tariffs, Hayes thinks the next step would be a tax on foreign investment, a low-profile form of capital control designed to reduce the U.S.’s reliance on foreign buyers without spooking voters at home. That’s how to get the American public to accept trade adjustments.

“The only policy that really works is capital controls,” he said.

The potential measures are many. Not just taxes on foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries or stocks, but more radical measures like mandatory Treasury swaps, swapping 10-year bonds for 100-year bonds, or higher withholding taxes on capital gains on U.S. assets.

It’s all part of a strategy to rebalance financial accounts, but it won’t force Americans to “buy less stuff,” a message he said no politician could deliver.

“Americans don’t like to do hard things,” he added. “They don’t want to be told they have to consume less.”

China Will Keep Accumulating U.S. Assets

Meanwhile, China isn’t going anywhere. Hayes said China has no choice but to keep buying U.S. assets, even if it pretends not to.

“They have to cover up how much they’re buying from the U.S. … But mathematically, they just can’t stop.”

For Hayes, it all points to one goal: more money flowing through the system, and Bitcoin absorbing those spillovers.

His portfolio reflects that view: 60% to 65% in Bitcoin, 20% in ETH, and the rest in what he calls “quality shitcoins.”

Why? Because the market is finally starting to look for coins that actually work.

“We’re in a fundamentals season. People are tired of coins that don’t do anything,” Hayes said.