Author: Michael Snyder & Translator: Peggy
Editor's Note: In the past few weeks, expectations for peace regarding the Iranian issue have briefly resurfaced. However, this article offers a completely different assessment: the author argues that the breakdown of US-Iran negotiations is not a diplomatic setback, but rather a signal of a renewed escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
The article revolves around three risk points: First, dialogue between Iran and the United States has stalled, with Tehran making Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon and the cessation of military operations in Gaza and Lebanon prerequisites for resuming negotiations; second, Hezbollah's attacks on northern Israel continue, while Israel retains the option of striking Beirut; third, Iran and its allies have begun to include global energy and shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in their retaliatory toolbox, making the regional conflict potentially spill over into global supply chain risks.
It's important to note that the original text carries a strong apocalyptic and war-prophetic tone, with the author elevating the current situation to the level of "World War III has arrived." This judgment is clearly highly subjective and requires careful analysis from the reader. However, the article's noteworthy aspect lies in its observation of disparate conflict events within a single chain: the breakdown of negotiations, proxy wars, Israeli military action, the restoration of Iran's missile capabilities, and the threat of blocking key straits are collectively constructing a more dangerous risk structure in the Middle East. In other words, what is truly alarming is not necessarily the failure of a particular ceasefire, but rather that all parties are simultaneously playing a game of negotiation, military deterrence, energy routes, and regional proxy forces. If the conflict continues to escalate, the Middle East battlefield will not only affect regional security but may also rewrite global energy prices, shipping costs, and the risk pricing of great power competition. The following is the original text: The Middle East conflict has lasted for more than two and a half years, but most people still don't truly understand its significance. This is not just another Middle East crisis that comes and goes. The fact is, this is the real, major conflict. For the past few weeks, the mainstream media has been assuring us that a permanent agreement with Iran is within reach, and that peace is finally on the horizon in the Middle East; while I have consistently warned that a permanent agreement is simply impossible. In fact, I wrote last week that a permanent agreement with Iran has become impossible. Many people think I was completely wrong, but now, negotiations between the United States and Iran have completely broken down. When President Trump first learned that Iran had terminated peace talks, his response was that he "didn't care" because the negotiations had "begun to get very boring." On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump, in an interview with CNBC, downplayed the potential breakdown of peace talks with Iran, saying, "To be honest, I don't care if they end." In a phone interview with CNBC reporter Eamon Javers on Monday afternoon, Trump said, "I really don't care. I don't care at all." He also stated that the lengthy negotiations "have started to get very boring." But clearly, President Trump does care, as he quickly spoke with leaders of Israel and Hezbollah. When Trump announced this, everyone cheered. However, shortly afterward, reports emerged that Hezbollah had fired more rockets into northern Israel. Hezbollah will not stop, and Iran does not want them to stop. In fact, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has apparently been secretly encouraging Hezbollah to escalate its attacks. According to Axios on Monday, citing a Lebanese official, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has been urging Hezbollah to escalate its war against Israel in order to gain leverage in negotiations with the United States. If rockets and drones continue to fall on northern Israel, consequences are inevitable. At Trump's request, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled the planned attack on Beirut. However, after speaking with Trump, he warned that Israel's operation to strike Beirut would continue if Hezbollah did not cease its rocket and drone attacks. Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israel would carry out its previous plan to strike Beirut if Hezbollah did not stop its attacks on northern Israel. Previously, US President Trump had stated that the Israeli Defense Forces would not enter the Lebanese capital, and that Israel and Hezbollah would cease attacks on each other. In a Hebrew statement, Netanyahu said, "I spoke with President Trump tonight and told him that if Hezbollah does not stop attacking our cities and civilians, Israel will strike terrorist targets in Beirut. Our position remains unchanged." He also stated, "Meanwhile, the Israel Defense Forces will continue its planned operations in southern Lebanon." This is completely unacceptable to the Iranians. They are telling us that there will be no further negotiations with the United States until every single Israeli soldier has completely withdrawn from Lebanon. According to Tasnim, "no dialogue will take place" until Israel completely withdraws from its occupied territories in Lebanon and ceases all attacks on Lebanon and Gaza. The report stated, "Furthermore, the resistance front and Iran have decided to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz and launch other fronts, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, to punish Zionists and their supporters." Iran also warned that residents of northern Israel would face significant danger if Israel ultimately attacks southern Beirut. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned residents of northern Israel to evacuate their homes if Israel carries out its threatened attack on southern Beirut. Fars News, a semi-official Iranian media outlet closely linked to the Revolutionary Guard, published an article on the X platform stating that this powerful paramilitary force is warning residents of "northern Israel and military settlements in occupied territories" that they should leave the area if they do not wish to be harmed. Will Iran soon launch ballistic missiles at Israeli cities again? This is possible. The Iranians are now on high alert, and they are clearly not afraid to pull the trigger. On Monday, Iran launched multiple missiles and drones at a U.S. military base in Kuwait. Before the ceasefire broke down, Iran had launched missiles and drones at a U.S. airbase in Kuwait in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on Iranian radar and drone command facilities. Washington called the airstrikes "self-defense strikes" against the Iranian regime's radar and drone command facilities. In addition, Iran just hit a merchant ship with a cruise missile in response to an earlier attack on a merchant ship bound for Iranian territory. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday that its navy struck the MSC Sariska V merchant ship with a cruise missile in retaliation for the U.S. military's attack on the Gambian-flagged bulk carrier Lian Star in the Sea of Oman, which was bound for Iran. The Revolutionary Guard claimed the ship belonged to "enemies of the United States and Israel." It seems war is back; and it seems Iranian officials are once again being targeted. This shouldn't have happened. According to the mainstream media, we were very close to peace. And I believe we will see more headlines tomorrow about a possible agreement with Iran, even though they have made it very clear that they will not negotiate with us until their conditions are met. Since one of the conditions is the withdrawal of all Israeli troops from Lebanon, these conditions will never be met, because it is simply impossible. I know many people desperately want peace, but this is not a time of peace. This is a time of war. World War III has arrived, and the Iranians have been preparing intensively for the next round of conflict. According to a report on Sunday, Iran has repaired entrances to dozens of missile facilities previously attacked by the US and Israel in recent conflicts. Meanwhile, the Islamic Republic of Iran continues to rebuild its military infrastructure as it negotiates a ceasefire with the US. The report, citing satellite imagery, states that Iran has reopened 50 of the 69 tunnel entrances at 18 underground missile facilities across the country. Iran has also repaired other damaged areas of these bases, including key access roads previously bombed by the US and Israel. The report states that the Iranian regime, "having rapidly unearthed its underground arsenal, is ready to launch more long-range missiles at Israel and other Middle Eastern countries." The report cites experts as saying that Iran still possesses approximately 1,000 ballistic missiles, most of which are stored at these 18 locations. Personally, I believe the Iranians have far more than 1,000 ballistic missiles remaining. I'm also convinced they still possess some unconventional, contingency plans. If pushed far enough, they will use those. Therefore, we should hope that calmer thinking prevails, but that's unlikely. We are actually witnessing World War III unfolding before our eyes, with even more death and destruction to come. Of course, many will continue to chant "peace and security" for as long as possible, but the reality is, no one can stop what is coming.
Alex
Weatherly
Anais