Wu Shuo Author|Gary Ma
Editor of this issue|Colin Wu
The release of Token by Optimism ignited discussions in the community, and the topics mainly revolved around the following three issues:
- Online price expectations, sell?
- Taking the lead in issuing coins to encourage traffic flow, can the Optimism ecology recover?
- The future trend of airdrops: Account maintenance is better than volume?
In this article, we will briefly discuss these three questions.
OP Listing Price Expectation
After knowing the specific number of airdrops, everyone's first reaction is how high can the OP listing price be?
$10, $5, $1, $0.5, $0.2...
For price expectations, thousands of people have different faces. However, we can provide two angles here to assist us in valuation and pricing.
Optimism has previously raised three rounds of funding.
2020 $3.5M seed round led by Paradigm and IDEO.
A $25 million Series A round led by a16z in 2021;
This year’s Series B round, co-led by Paradigm and a16z, raised $150 million at a valuation of $1.65 billion.
First of all, if we use the valuation of the B round of financing as a reference, the total initial supply of OP is nearly 4.3 billion, and the calculated cost of the B round of tokens is about $0.38.
If we comprehensively consider the comprehensive cost of early investors, 17% of OP’s token distribution is allocated to investors, and the total financing amount of Optimism is about 178 million US dollars. Calculated, the comprehensive cost of early investors is about for $0.24.
Then, the next step is to think about the multiplier of the cost premium of primary and secondary tokens that vary from person to person. 10x, 5x, 2x...
In view of the current downturn in the big market and the fact that the early circulation tokens are all "costless" airdrop tokens, it is not optimistic whether the secondary market can get out of such a multiple. plate.
Nevertheless, the price range of $0.24~$0.38, as the lower limit of a reasonable range, still has a good reference value.
Now, let's change the angle and use indicators such as market capitalization & TVL to compare peer valuations and try to get a reasonable valuation range.
According to the above figure, we can conclude that the OP's conservative, reasonable, optimistic and extremely optimistic prices are: $0.11, $0.46, $1.16, $4.65.
Taking the lead in issuing coins to encourage traffic flow, can the Optimism ecology recover?
The issuance of Optimism this time is indeed a surprise. Previously, the community tended to think that Arbitrum would be the first to issue the currency, especially since it launched a warm-up of its ecological activities in May.
However, this time Optimism is the first to issue coins. The community thinks that this is a passive defensive measure. Facing the tepid ecology, they have no choice but to use the last coin issuance tips in advance.
Among the current L2 giants (Optimism, Arbitrum, StarkNet, zkSync), the latter two are more technically biased towards zk, and the main network has not yet launched, so we will not make a comparison for now, but only compare Optimism and Arbitrum.
Although when the Arbitrum mainnet was first launched, it was basically dominated by local dogs, but now it has developed, and native projects such as GMX, Treasure DAO, Dopex, and Vesta have gradually been born. The integration of recharge and withdrawal with the exchange has also been relatively perfect.
The current well-known projects on Optimism are basically SNX ecological projects (Lyra, Kwenta), and there are basically few native projects from 0 to 1. The reason may lie in the slightly strict whitelist project mechanism adopted in its early stage, and even SushiSwap could not participate as the first batch of projects.
Of course, if Optimism hopes to incentivize mending the past by issuing coins, it is still a feasible measure, but this is not a nirvana, after all, other L2 networks can also do it. However, L2 has just begun, and there are still many variables in the future. Even technical solutions such as Optimistic Rollup must accept the strong challenge of ZK Rollup, we will wait and see.
The future trend of airdrops: Account maintenance is better than volume?
The airdrop distribution of Optimism is indeed a model. The airdrop token distribution takes into account the interests of real loyal users and early interactive experiencers. It can be said that everyone is happy. At the same time, early interactive experiencers are also more determined to issue coins by other L2 giants The possibility of airdrops, but through this Optimism airdrop screening, they also realized the importance of accurate account maintenance.
Taking this Optimism airdrop as an example, a user who meets all the options can get more than 30,000 OP, while a basic account can only get nearly 730 OP, the former is more than 40 times that of the latter.
Of course, there are some opposing voices in the community at present, saying that this kind of retrospective airdrop behavior is actually not conducive to the project party’s analysis of its own product market fit (PMF). All participation behaviors are based on potential airdrop incentives, not the product itself. The convenience and value brought by it cannot better give positive feedback to the project product.