Author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Translated by: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: This article describes a French trader who calls himself Théo, who bet on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket. He bet more than $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insisted that he had no political motives and was only doing it to make money, but because of the huge amount of money, he could hardly withdraw these bets and took huge risks.
The following is the original content (the original content has been reorganized for easier reading and understanding):
The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory said: "I don't want to manipulate the US election"
The mysterious man who bet more than $30 million on Trump's victory wants the outside world to know that he has no intention of manipulating the US election. "My purpose is just to make money," the man who calls himself "Théo" said in a Zoom interview with a reporter from the Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He introduced himself as a Frenchman who lived in the United States and worked as a trader at several banks before.
Théo's huge bet on Polymarket has attracted widespread attention. The prediction market is not open to Americans. Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts on the platform systematically bought bets on Trump's victory, raising Trump's chances of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds of these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, which has triggered heated discussions about the motives of the "Trump whale" behind it.
Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the "Trump whale" and launched an investigation into the bet. The company said the bettor was a French financial industry professional with extensive trading experience.
Former President Trump's shadow was reflected on an American flag while attending a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin.
Polymarket said in a statement: "Based on our investigation, we learned that this individual took a directional position based on his personal views on the election. The details of Polymarket's statement are consistent with Théo's self-description, and he confirmed that he had communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.
At present, election observers are carefully analyzing various data, trying to predict the outcome of this US presidential election, which is considered to be the most intense and closest in history. Prediction markets, as a platform that allows people to bet on various potential events, have become one of the ways to predict the results of the election. Historical studies have shown that the candidate with the highest winning rate in the prediction market before the election day usually wins the White House.
However, the emergence of the "Trump whale" exposes the limitations of the current prediction market: despite the surge in trading volume on Polymarket this year, the market size is still relatively small, and it is still easy for a well-funded and high-profile investor to manipulate prices through multi-million-dollar bets.
Théo contacted the Wall Street Journal by email after an article about his bet was published on Oct. 18. To prove that he was indeed a "Trump whale" on Polymarket, the newspaper asked him to place a bet on the platform on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024 - one of many small, non-political bets on the platform. A few minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named "Theo4" had indeed placed a small bet on Swift's pregnancy. j
In the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater, a neat short beard and speaking English with a slight accent, said he made the bet after analyzing polls that underestimated Trump's support, and he denied speculation that he was betting to create Trump's momentum.
Théo declined to give his real name, and the Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claimed that the bets were made with his own funds, it is impossible to confirm their authenticity or rule out his connection with any political organization or Trump allies.
"I have absolutely no political agenda," Théo wrote in the initial email.
Théo said he did not want to be named because his friends and children were not aware of his wealth and he did not want them to know about his bet on Trump. He described himself as a senior financial investor who was willing to risk tens of millions of dollars on highly confident trades, but political bets were new territory for him.
Théo said he began to pay attention to US polling data earlier this year and found that many polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the "shy Trump supporter effect" - that some voters are reluctant to tell pollsters that they support Trump.
“I know a lot of Americans who will vote for Trump but won’t tell you,” Théo said, dismissing the adjustments made by pollsters to correct questions in 2016 and 2020, saying he “didn’t see any substantive changes.”
In two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to Wall Street Journal reporters criticizing mainstream media polls that he believed were biased toward Harris. In a Zoom call, he claimed that Democratic-backed media were paving the way for social unrest by touting a fiercely competitive race, while he expected an overwhelming victory for Trump.
Théo said he was surprised by the attention to his trading and began making low-key bets in August, buying millions of dollars in contracts for Trump’s victory using the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris’ odds on Polymarket were roughly even.
To avoid wild price swings, Théo spread his bets over multiple days. Still, as his bets grew, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid quotes when Fredi9999 bought, making it difficult for him to place bets at the prices he wanted. So he created three additional accounts in September and October to mask his buying.
If Trump wins the election and sweeps the election as he expects, Théo could make more than $80 million, doubling his money. His main bet is that Trump wins the electoral vote, and he has placed millions more on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. He has also bet on Trump to win in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million—the bulk of his liquid assets.
Because his position in Polymarket is so large, it’s nearly impossible to close it without moving the market. According to Polymarket Analytics, four “Trump whale” accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts on Trump’s electoral victory and more than 40% of the contracts on his popular vote victory.
Théo admitted that he was nervous. He was confident that Trump would win, with a chance of winning between 80% and 90%, but was also worried about the outcome of his bets being affected by last-minute breaking news.
“Anytime, there could be an unexpected event,” Théo said.
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