2026 Crypto Market Outlook: Embracing the Era of "New Web3 Tycoons"

Author: danny; Source: X, @agintender

In 2023, the Los Angeles Times once again named Indomie the world's best-tasting instant noodles. This instant food from Indonesia has not only conquered taste buds from South Africa to London, but has also become part of popular culture. However, behind each packet of instant noodles costing a few cents lies a thrilling history of primitive capital accumulation, and a modern business allegory about "power, capital, and monopoly."

Introduction: Starting with the World's Best Instant Noodles

Indomie's parent company, Indofood, belongs to the Salim Group, whose founder, Liem Sioe Liong, was once Asia's richest man.

Liem Sioe Liong was born in Fuqing, Fujian, China in 1916. In 1938, he arrived in Java, Indonesia, as a "coolie" (a lowly laborer sold into slavery). He worked in his uncle's grocery store in his early years, accumulating initial capital before starting a business selling cloves and cigarettes. (Note that Indomie was actually "acquired" by Indofood.) Cukong is a unique Indonesian term referring to ethnic Chinese merchants who provided funds to political and military asylum seekers in exchange for protection and monopolistic privileges. Liem Sioe Liong's "guardian angel" was Lieutenant Colonel Suharto. During the Indonesian War of Independence and subsequent military operations, Liem Sioe Liong risked his life to smuggle food, medicine, and clothing to Suharto's 4th Military Region, establishing a physical bond of "life and death," a trust that transcended race and religion. When Suharto seized power in 1966 and established the "New Order," Liem Sioe Liong naturally became the economic engine of the regime, or rather, a close confidant of the president. Shortly after taking power, Suharto, in an effort to address the domestic food crisis, decided to shift the country's diet from rice to wheat-based foods. However, Indonesia at the time lacked the necessary processing equipment, import channels, and US dollars, and this arduous task fell to Liem Sioe Liong. Suharto granted Liem Sioe Liong an exclusive monopoly on flour processing in western Indonesia. This was an invaluable "decree," meaning he possessed a printing press. However, while Liem Sioe Liong had the "political license" to establish a monopoly, he lacked two crucial elements: technical expertise in industrial manufacturing and the enormous capital required to build heavy industry. This resource gap foreshadowed his eventual encounter with Chin Chearavanont. Building a modern flour mill—later known as PT Bogasari Flour Mills—required tens of millions of dollars. Even with a presidential mandate, Liem Sioe Liong tirelessly sought out banks in Jakarta and the West, but the bankers in suits shook their heads at his empty balance sheet. In their eyes, Liem was merely a speculator with no industrial experience and no collateral, and Indonesia was just an impoverished fishing village. Just as the Bogasari plan was about to fail, Chin Sophonpanich, the founder of Bangkok Bank in Thailand, appeared. As the godfather of Southeast Asian "bamboo net" capital at the time, Chin possessed a unique intuition. Unlike the Western banking system, he didn't scrutinize Liem's ​​financial statements but saw through the essence of the deal: Suharto's political endorsement was the strongest collateral. Chen Bichen not only provided the huge start-up capital needed to build the factory, but also used Bangkok Bank's international credit to issue Liem Sioe Liong a letter of credit for imported wheat. This is what this article refers to as the "Chen Bichen Moment"—when capital no longer pays for the past (balance sheet, founder's experience, industry), but instead bets on monopolistic structures and market access. With capital and technology, Bogasari quickly monopolized the Indonesian flour market. The continuous cash flow subsequently incubated several dominant local companies and also acquired the national brand Indomie, ultimately building Liem Sioe Liong's business empire. The Web3 industry in 2026 is currently experiencing such a "Chen Bichen Moment." I. A Meeting of the Centuries: The Process of Acquaintance and the "Bamboo Network" Chain The acquaintance between Chen Bichen and Liem Sioe Liong was a product of the unique Southeast Asian "Bamboo Network" business structure. Through the introduction of Robert Kuok, the "Sugar King" of Malaysia, the two ultimately created a grand business empire together. (Note: The Bamboo Network is an informal business network among Southeast Asian Chinese based on kinship, geographical ties, and professional connections. In this network, reputation and trust are more important than contracts.) In the late 1960s, although Liem Sioe Liong held a flour processing monopoly granted by Suharto, he knew nothing about the modern flour industry. He urgently needed a technical partner. Liem Sioe Liong first approached Robert Kuok in Malaysia, who had already achieved great success in the flour and sugar industries. Robert Kuok not only provided Liem Sioe Liong with crucial technical advice and channels, but also connected him with Tan Sri Chen. Tan Sri Chen prided himself on "knowing all the important figures in the region." During his exile in Hong Kong, he closely monitored the regional situation. When Liem Sioe Liong became the "proxy" for Indonesia's new president, Suharto, Tan Sri Chen immediately recognized this pattern—similar to his earlier relationship with a Thai general. Tan Sri Chen understood that Suharto needed an economic proxy, and Liem Sioe Liong was the chosen one. II. Bogasari Flour Mills: Funding a Nation's Breadbasket Founded in 1971, PT Bogasari Flour Mills was not only the flagship company of the Salim Group but also the first and most important case study of Bangkok Bank's strategic support for Liem Sioe Liong. This was not merely a commercial loan, but an expansion of Indonesia's geopolitical landscape. 2.1 Strategic Background: Wheat as a Political Stabilizer In the late 1960s, Indonesia was heavily reliant on rice imports, which were subject to extreme price fluctuations, depleting foreign exchange reserves and threatening the stability of the regime. Suharto attempted to diversify the national diet and reduce dependence on rice by introducing wheat products (noodles and bread). At the time, the US government provided wheat aid to Indonesia through the PL-480 "Peace Food" program, but Indonesia lacked wheat processing facilities. Against this backdrop, Suharto granted Liem Sioe Liong exclusive rights to wheat processing in western Indonesia (Java and Sumatra, accounting for 80% of the market). 2.2 Financing Challenges and the Absence of Western Banks Building one of the world's largest flour mills required tens of millions of dollars. Although Liem Sioe Liong had achieved some success in trade at the time, raising such a huge amount of funds in a short period of time was almost impossible. For Western bankers at the time, Indonesia was a high-risk country that had just experienced a bloody coup and economic chaos. Liem Sioe Liong was seen as a "lilac trader" with no operational experience or credit history, an opaque balance sheet, and insufficient collateral. According to traditional credit assessment standards, this loan would not be approved. 2.3 The Intervention of Bangkok Bank While others hesitated, Chin Phibun decisively intervened. Bangkok Bank provided the crucial start-up capital and working capital needed to build the Tanjung Priok Bogasari complex in Jakarta. Chin Phibun's assessment of this loan was not based on Liem Sioe Liong's financial statements, but on the value of the Suharto Franchise. Chen Bichen deeply understood that with the monopoly decree (the National Logistics Agency Bulog was authorized to exclusively supply wheat to Bogasari, process it, and then repurchase it), this company would be a money-printing machine unless the regime collapsed. Suharto once vividly described Bogasari's role as a "tailor"—the client (the state) provides the fabric (wheat), the tailor makes the suit (flour) and charges a processing fee. Bangkok Bank effectively securitized and discounted this government-guaranteed "processing fee" cash flow. Chen Bichen saw the potential in this monopolistic OEM model: monopoly meant controlling pricing power, processing meant added value, and it was profitable. Besides construction funds, Bogasari's operations required importing huge amounts of wheat from the United States and Australia. Bangkok Bank leveraged its prestigious reputation in the international financial community to issue crucial letters of credit for Bogasari. Western suppliers might not trust the newly established Bogasari, but they trusted Bangkok Bank. Chen Bichen effectively used his bank credit to guarantee Lin Shaoliang's import business. 2.4 Operational Success and Initial Capital Accumulation With the financial support of Bangkok Bank, Bogasari successfully commenced production in 1971. It not only generated stable cash flow through processing fees but also reaped astonishing profits from the sale of by-products (bran and wheat middlings)—according to the agreement, these by-products belonged to Lin Shaoliang and could be used for animal feed sales. This cash flow from Bogasari provided a continuous source of funding for Salim Group's subsequent expansion into cement (Indocement) and banking (BCA). III. Paradigm Reconstruction: The "Chen Bichen Moment" in the Web3 Context What would this model represent if we transferred it to Web3 in 2026?

1. Commodity: What it is isn't important; what matters is who thinks it's important. In the 1970s, it was flour (Suharto could have easily replaced it with other foods), while in 2026 it could be blockchain space, stablecoin liquidity, privacy, AI-enhanced efficiency, RWA, and other areas recognized by giants and that they can leverage existing resources to expand into.

2. Political Concessions (Backing): In 1960s Indonesia, it was Suharto's executive orders; in the Web3 world, it's compliance licenses and pledges of allegiance. The US's *GENIUS*, the EU's MiCA, Yzi's incubation agreement, Coinbase Venture's investment, BlackRock's support, and so on, have become the new era's "franchise licenses." **Chen Bichen (The Financier):** Today, Chen Bichen is no longer associated with Bangkok Bank, but rather with top asset management institutions or industry players represented by BlackRock, Coinbase, Binance, and A16z. **Lin Shaoliang (The Operator):** Today, Lin Shaoliang represents those crypto-native giants who have already been "co-opted" and established deep ties with regulators, management, GPs, and influential figures. **In 2026, successful Web3 projects will no longer be merely decentralized protocols, but sovereign economies (capable of serving the sovereign businesses of giants). This shift means that market competition in 2026 will no longer be a competition of technological superiority, but a competition of capital efficiency and political resources—doing things that help giants expand their influence and business will become the new politically correct approach. IV. Macroeconomic Environment and Institutional Reform: A Breeding Ground for New Plutocrats The Web3 industry in 2026 is caught in a triple resonance of a global interest rate cut cycle, geopolitical restructuring, and the implementation of regulatory frameworks. 4.1 Interest Rate Cut Cycle and Targeted Liquidity Injection By 2026, major central banks worldwide will have entered a definite interest rate cut cycle. Liquidity Spillover Effect: As risk-free interest rates decline, capital seeks higher-risk assets again. As a high-beta asset, Web3 naturally attracts capital inflows. **Institutional Exclusivity:** Unlike the retail bull market of 2021, the liquidity injection in 2026 will be highly targeted. Funds will flow into the market through compliant channels—namely, spot ETFs, compliant stablecoins (USDC, PYUSD), and tokenized funds (BUIDL)—rather than indiscriminately flowing into altcoins. 4.2 Sound Regulation: The Legal Foundation of the "Walled Garden" In 2026, regulation will no longer be a Damocles' sword hanging over people's heads, but a solid wall that has already been laid. **GENIUS Act:** The United States established a federal regulatory framework for payment-type stablecoins, requiring only licensed entities to issue them. This provision effectively created extremely high barriers to entry, establishing the oligopoly of compliant issuers such as Circle and Paxos.

   Full Implementation of MiCA: The EU's MiCA legislation's strict requirements on asset reference tokens have severely compressed the survival space of unauthorized offshore stablecoins in the European market.

   4.3 Political-Business Integration: The Digital Extension of Dollar Hegemony

   In 2026, Web3 technology was explicitly included in national strategic competition. Circle, as the issuer of USDC, is increasingly resembling the Federal Reserve's "digital shadow bank." It not only holds a large amount of US Treasury bonds but also actively cooperates with sanctions policies. This "political-business integration" structure makes USDC not just a commercial product but also an extension of national credit.

   For individuals, the difficulty of standing out in this three-way competition is undoubtedly enormous. 4.4 The Immediate Demise of New Counterfeit Projects During the 2024-2025 cycle, there were too many star projects and top-tier projects, most of which were characterized by pre-market hedging, immediate collapse upon opening, and a demise before achieving a grand slam. Upon closer inspection, without the backing of giants, not being a mainstream exchange, without OG (official) backing, or using contract trading to eliminate counterparties, most projects simply opened and remained silent without any significant impact. It's not that price equals performance; rather, the tears of the times can only leave room for attention, and the market has fallen to a point where the ceiling for growth is dictated by liquidity providers.

   V. 2026: The Year of Web3 Monopoly

   If the Bogasari flour mill was the physical foundation of Liem Sioe Liong's empire, then Web3 in 2026 is searching for its "digital flour mill." In this new cycle, the core logic of business has returned from "technological innovation" to the essence of business—acquiring monopoly and controlling pricing power.

   5.1 Daring to Be Second: The Giants' "Later Strike" Strategy

   For behemoths like Binance, Coinbase, and BlackRock, they no longer need to be the first to try something new. Just as Liem Sioe Liong didn't need to invent flour processing technology and create Indomie, Web3 giants don't need to invent the latest DeFi protocols themselves.

   (Yes, Indomie was acquired by Lin through a combination of capital and pressure tactics.) For giants, the specific focus—whether it's RWA, AI Agent, or Meme—is irrelevant. They possess massive capital and user bases (i.e., "liquidity"), allowing them to wait for the market to validate a winning model. Then, by acquiring, replicating, or supporting their "own" projects, they leverage their sheer size to instantly break through market barriers, achieving a "late-mover advantage." Between 2025 and 2026, there will be a surge in M&A activity in the crypto industry, with examples of agents entering the fray. This is giants cleaning up the battlefield. Mid-sized projects without the protection of giants will face marginalization or forced mergers. 5.2 Supporting Own Projects: Case Studies of Building Digital Moats The main theme of 2026 will be "strong alliances" and "internal incubation." Giants are building closed ecosystems to ensure profits remain within their own walled gardens. 5.2.1 Binance's Shadow Empire: YZi Labs and Aster Unable to launch its own perpetual contract DEX directly without facing regulatory scrutiny, Binance opted for a "proxy" strategy. The Rise of Aster: Aster is considered Binance's "inner circle" in the decentralized derivatives field. It is backed by YZi Labs (formerly Binance Labs) and even received public investment endorsement from Changpeng Zhao (CZ). Through Aster, Binance effectively imports its centralized exchange (CEX) market-making resources and liquidity onto the blockchain, building a "shadow DEX." This "front store (Binance) back factory (Aster)" model avoids regulatory risks and monopolizes the pricing power of derivatives on the BNB Chain. 5.2.2 Coinbase and Circle: A Joint Venture for Dollar Hegemony The relationship between Coinbase and Circle goes beyond partnership; it's a deep equity tie. Coinbase not only invested in Circle but also entered into a revenue-sharing agreement, sharing the enormous interest income generated by USDC reserves. This alliance gives USDC absolute exclusivity within the Coinbase ecosystem (including the Base chain). Coinbase leverages its position as a compliance gateway to aggressively promote USDC, essentially operating a "digital Federal Reserve."

   VI. It's Hard for Children from Poor Families to Achieve Success: Major Opportunities Have Been Monopolized

   6.1 Top-Tier Positions Backed by Exchanges: Exchange Public Chains and Digital Walled Gardens

   The public chain landscape in 2026 shows a clear "Balkanization" trend. In the "Chen Bichen moment," the Bogasari flour mill was the physical carrier of monopolistic profits. In 2026, public chains backed by exchanges are an extension of another exchange's "listing monopoly."

   Coinbase and Base

   Base is not completely decentralized, but rather an extension of Coinbase's corporate governance.

   As the sole sorting operator, Coinbase captures all on-chain gas fee revenue, and projects launched on Coinbase, or protocols supporting Coinbase wallets, are more likely to receive attention from Coinbase's listing team. Binance plays a role similar to a "central government" on BNB Chain, supporting the ecosystem through massive subsidies. However, if a protocol isn't on the core team, the road to its eventual success may be long. 6.2 The Stablecoin War: Digital Flour and Monetary Sovereignty If public blockchains are the land, then stablecoins are the "flour" circulating on that land, and their money-printing potential is undeniable. The stablecoin market in 2026 underwent a reshuffling from "hundreds of players vying for dominance" to "two giants facing off." After this reshuffling, do you think there's any room for ordinary players? 6.2.1 Regulation as a Moat: USDC's Compliance Hegemony Circle's USDC, issued in 2026, established its monopoly as the "onshore digital dollar." Coinbase's Symbiotic Relationship with Circle: Coinbase invested in Circle and reached a revenue-sharing agreement. The two parties share the interest income generated by reserves based on USDC holdings and distribution. This deep alignment of interests gives Coinbase a strong incentive to prioritize the promotion of USDC in all scenarios. 6.2.2 Offshore Resistance: Tether's Golden Fortress Faced with the pressure from USDC in the compliant market, Tether (USDT) took a completely different path in 2026—a sovereign-level asset reserve. Tether's gold reserves reached a staggering $12.9 billion in 2025. By issuing gold-backed tokens, Tether has effectively transformed itself into a shadow central bank—a "digital version of the Bretton Woods system" built on the blockchain. 6.3 A Powerful Alliance: RWA and the Colonization of Institutional Capital Black Rock's BUIDL Fund: The New Benchmark Rate for DeFi Black Rock's BUIDL fund tokenizes US Treasury bonds, allowing accredited investors to hold them on-chain and receive daily interest payments. Furthermore, major exchanges like Binance plan to accept BUIDL as collateral. This means institutional traders can use interest-bearing assets (Treasury bonds) instead of idle funds as collateral, significantly improving capital efficiency. The rise of RWA marks a fundamental shift in the nature of tokens. In 2020, most DeFi tokens were "governance tokens," offering no value beyond voting rights. In 2026, RWA tokens will be "yield-bearing tokens," their value anchored to real-world cash flow. The narrative may sound appealing, but it seems irrelevant to ordinary people.

   VII. Conclusion and 2026 Outlook: Embracing the Era of "New Web3 Tycoons"

   Looking back, Liem Sioe Liong rose from a lilac vendor to Asia's richest man because he understood the "game" of that era—Suharto needed an economic pillar, and this pillar had to be built on monopolies and financial leverage.

   The Web3 industry in 2026 is at just such a moment.

   From Grassroots to Tycoons: Those "cryptopunks" who attempt to go it alone and challenge regulation will gradually be marginalized. At the center of the stage are the "new tycoons" like Liem Sioe Liong, who know how to dance with regulation and leverage the capital and pledge of allegiance of figures like Peter Chan (Black Rock/Coinbase/Binance). From Selling Products to Selling Sovereignty: The business model is no longer simply about developing protocols and earning fees, but about building digital city-states (Base, BNB Chain), issuing digital currencies (Stablecoins), and using AI agents to gain a monopoly by controlling infrastructure, thereby obtaining excess profits. It's not that cash flow isn't attractive, but that the giants want everything, not just the cash flow at the end. This is a new mercantilist era ruled by code, driven by capital, and backed by endorsements. In this world, the story of Liem Sioe Liong and Tan Phik Chan hasn't faded away; it's just taken on a different form—the new Liem Sioe Liong is the confidant of exchanges and public chains, the new Tan Phik Chan is Binance/Coinbase/BlackRock, and blockchain is the digital land where they build their next-generation "flour mill." It's not that Web3 lacks narrative, but rather that the narrative has shifted from chronology to biography.