Kalshi: Market forecasting outperforms Wall Street in predicting inflation, with an average error 40% lower than market consensus.

A Kalshi research report shows that over the past 25 months, prediction markets have outperformed Wall Street in forecasting inflation. Based on market predictions of year-on-year changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the average error was 40% lower than the consensus market expectation between February 2023 and mid-2025. This difference is even more pronounced when actual values ​​deviate significantly from expectations. The advantage of prediction markets lies in their aggregation of diverse information from numerous traders based on economic incentives, creating a "collective intelligence" effect that allows for a more sensitive response to changing environments. These findings suggest that market-based predictions can be a valuable supplementary tool for institutional policymakers, especially during periods of high uncertainty. (CoinDesk)