Opinion: Bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended, and a new "two-year cycle" is about to begin.

In an article, Bitwise advisor Jeff Park argues that while Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is driven by a combination of mining economics and behavioral psychology, the future cycle will shift to a two-year cycle driven by a combination of "fund manager economics" and "ETF footprint-driven behavioral psychology." He believes that in the old cycle, the supply shock from halvings and the resulting reflexive herd behavior were reliable drivers, but the influence of the supply side is now less significant. The analysis of the new cycle is based on three main assumptions: investors evaluate Bitcoin investments within a one- to two-year framework; professional investor flows through ETFs will dominate Bitcoin liquidity, with ETFs serving as a proxy indicator; and the analysis does not consider the selling behavior of OG whales (who are still the largest supply setters in the market). Jeff Park points out that year-end profit (YTD P&L) is a key factor in the asset management industry because annual performance determines fund fees (especially for hedge funds). When fund managers lack sufficient early profits as a buffer, they are more inclined to sell their riskiest positions towards the end of the year. A research report points out that capital inflows mechanically drive up returns, and high returns attract even more inflows, with this cyclical reversal taking nearly two years. Based on this, he analyzed possible scenarios for fund managers assessing their Bitcoin positions: Scenario 1 (2024): Bitcoin rises by 100%, far exceeding the 30% institutional compound annual growth rate (CAGR) threshold. Scenario 2 (2025): Bitcoin is down 7% year-to-date; to reach the target, investors need to achieve a return of over 50% in the next two years. Scenario 3 (Two-year holding): Investors have achieved an 85% increase, slightly above the 70% return required for a 30% CAGR. At this point, rational fund managers might consider selling to lock in profits, protect their reputation, and demonstrate the value of their "risk management" as a premium service. Jeff Park believes that Bitcoin is currently approaching an increasingly important price level of $84,000, which is the total cost basis of the ETF from its inception to the present. He pointed out that most of the positive profits for ETFs came in 2024, while ETF inflows in 2025 were almost entirely unprofitable (except for March). The largest monthly inflow occurred in October 2024 (when BTC had reached $70,000). He explained that this setup could be bearish because investors who invested at the end of 2024 but did not reach the return threshold will face a decision point as the two-year cycle approaches. If the market enters a bear market, the reason will no longer be the four-year cycle, but rather the two-year cycle's failure to allow fund managers to introduce new capital at the correct entry point to offset profit-taking by exiting investors. He concluded that the future will no longer be about monitoring only the average cost basis of ETF holders, but rather focusing on the average profit movement trend categorized by purchase time. He believes this will be the biggest source of pressure on future Bitcoin price movements in terms of liquidity supply and circuit breaker mechanisms, leading to a "dynamic two-year cycle." He emphasized that if Bitcoin's price stagnates, it will be negative for Bitcoin in the institutional era because asset management is a "cost-of-capital" business. If Bitcoin's return on investment is compressed to below 30% due to price stagnation, it will lead to investors selling. He believes that buyers (fund managers) are more predictable than in the past four-year cycle, and the reduced importance of supply constraints means that this more predictable behavior will dominate.