Opinion: Powell may face significant internal resistance; the December rate cut meeting may see multiple dissenting votes.

Nick Timiraos, a vocal critic of the Federal Reserve, writes that Trump stated this week that he expects interest rates to fall sharply after a new Fed chairman is appointed next May. However, growing opposition within the Fed to a December rate cut suggests his wish may be difficult to fulfill. Whether Powell chooses to hold rates steady or cut them in December, he faces the most significant internal resistance in his nearly eight-year term. This division could extend into next year, meaning that even a change of chairman does not guarantee further rate cuts. Some worry that if Trump fails to achieve his goal, he might resort to more aggressive measures to undermine the central bank's independence in exchange for rate cuts. For over 30 years, Fed chairs have sought the broadest possible consensus on interest rate decisions, with no decision passed by a narrow majority. But the December meeting is highly likely to see three or more dissenting votes. Evercore ISI economist Krishna Guha stated, "We are witnessing a breakdown in the decision-making process, and next year we may see a serious split within the committee. (December) feels like a preview of 2026." This suggests an unprecedented prospect: monetary policy outcomes may be decided by a very rare, narrow majority (rather than the long-standing tradition of pursuing broad consensus), and Trump's new chairperson may not be able to control the situation every time. (Jinshi)