Analysis: The US government shutdown has pushed the world into a data blind spot, and global risks will surge over time

Adam Posen, president of the Desen Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England policymaker, said the shutdown itself and the turmoil surrounding the Bureau of Labor Statistics "have exacerbated widespread doubts about U.S. governance and reliability... This is important. It will ultimately affect reserve management and monetary policymaking, and affect the outlook for volatility in the United States that did not exist before." With major gaps in the data flow covering about a quarter of global economic output, the outlook will become more unclear the longer the shutdown lasts. "Of course, there is still a lot of information out there, and policymakers are investing a lot of effort in collecting micro data and anecdotal evidence on the United States," said Robert Kahn, head of global macro at Eurasia Group. "But how best to put it all together, and importantly how markets will react to this news, are key unknowns. As time goes by, uncertainty accumulates and the risk of being wrong increases." (Jin Shi)