After the CPI announcement, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September rose to 10.9%.

According to CME's "Fed Watch," the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September is 89.1%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 10.9%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October is 4.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 84.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 11.3%. (Before the CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September was 92%, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut was 8%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in October is 21.2%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 72.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point rate cut is 6.2%.) (Jinshi)