CITIC Securities: Non-farm payroll data weakened again, and the probability of three interest rate cuts this year increased

CITIC Securities' research report stated that the US non-farm payroll data weakened again in August. The three-digit unemployment rate rose to 4.248% in July and 4.324% in August, respectively, meeting market expectations. August's non-farm payroll figures fell significantly short of expectations, with both government and private sectors weakening. Furthermore, this week's US employment data, including the ADP and PMI employment components, weakened across the board, confirming our previous view that the US job market is not as healthy as the data suggests. The US job market continues to cool, and the economy continues to weaken, but a recession is not imminent. For the Federal Reserve, job market risks are rising again. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting, followed by further 25 basis point cuts in October and December. (Jinshi)