Bitcoin News: Bitcoin Consolidates Above $110K, But $95K Breakdown Could Signal Bear Market

Key Takeaways:The Binance BTC/stablecoin ratio is nearing parity at 1, a level that previously marked major cycle bottoms.Bitcoin trades near $110,700, holding just above the short-term holder realized price of $107,600.A drop below $95,000 risks the first 50-week SMA bear signal of this cycle.Binance Ratio Flashes Rare SignalA rarely seen Bitcoin market signal is re-emerging on Binance. The Bitcoin-to-stablecoin ratio — which measures BTC reserves relative to stablecoin balances — is approaching parity at 1.This setup has historically coincided with major turning points. The last time the ratio hit parity in March 2025, Bitcoin pulled back to $78,000 before rallying to its $123,000 all-time high. Data from CryptoQuant shows the ratio has only appeared twice since the last bear market, raising speculation that it could once again mark a bottom.The difference now, however, is that markets are still in consolidation, not deep capitulation. That raises the risk this could be a false bottom signal, hinting at turbulence rather than an immediate rebound.Stablecoin Reserves Build, Capital on SidelinesBacking the ratio’s strength, Binance’s ERC-20 stablecoin reserves just hit a record $37.8 billion. Analysts see this as a sign of deep liquidity and fresh capital waiting to re-enter the market.Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted that BTC is trading at $110,700, just above the short-term holder realized price of $107,600, which remains a key support level.Other long-term structural metrics remain bullish:Overall realized price: $52,800Long-term holder realized price: $35,600Net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL): 0.53 → profit regime but below euphoric highsThese levels suggest conviction remains strong, though the market is still in a “repair phase” sensitive to profit-taking.The $95K Line: Bitcoin’s 50-Week SMA RiskOne of Bitcoin’s most reliable trend signals is also in play: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA). Since 2018, every weekly close below this line has triggered prolonged bear markets:2018: 63% decline2022: 67% decline2020 exception: BTC rebounded quickly after the pandemic crashBitcoin has held above the 50-SMA since March 2023, but current levels place it near risk. Analysts estimate that a drop to $90K–$95K could mark the first weekly close below the 50-SMA this cycle — a clear bear signal.Turning Point or False Alarm?For now, Bitcoin remains in a profit regime with bullish higher timeframes, but the Binance ratio’s reappearance raises questions:If BTC holds above $107,600 support, the signal could mark another bottom.If BTC breaks below $95K, history suggests a deep correction could follow.Whether this rare Binance ratio proves to be a buy-the-dip opportunity or the first sign of a new bear market will depend on how Bitcoin reacts around these key levels in the weeks ahead, according to Cointelegraph.