Powell's Upcoming Speech at Jackson Hole Sparks Speculation on Fed's Rate Cut Plans

According to BlockBeats, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework at the Kansas City Fed's annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 22 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (10 p.m. UTC+8). Major investment banks have shared their expectations for Powell's address. State Street Global Advisors anticipates that Powell might pave the way for interest rate cuts starting in September and continuing through the end of the year. UBS suggests that, based on last week's data, Powell may indicate a preference for a rate cut in September. Russell Investments believes the Jackson Hole meeting could temper expectations for a Fed rate cut, suggesting that a September cut is "possible" rather than "certain," with a likely reduction of 25 basis points instead of 50. ING notes that recent concerns expressed by three Fed officials—Daly, Cook, and Kashkari—about the deteriorating job market could signal a shift towards a more dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting. MUFG highlights the risk that Powell might not provide a clear signal on the timing of the next rate cut, allowing the Fed more time to assess upcoming data before the September FOMC meeting. This could help mitigate short-term downward pressure on the U.S. dollar. Bank of America remains skeptical about a rate cut this year, noting that Powell expressed satisfaction in July with low employment growth as long as the unemployment rate remains within a narrow range. This scenario appears to be unfolding, and Powell's speech at Jackson Hole will offer him an opportunity to align his words with actions.