Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin Could Reach $135K by Year-End — $199K in Bullish Scenario, According to Citi Analysts

Citi forecasts Bitcoin to hit $135K by year-end in its base case, with a bullish target of $199K fueled by ETF demand, user adoption, and macro drivers.Key TakeawaysBase-case forecast: Bitcoin to reach $135,000 by year-end.Bullish scenario: BTC could surge to $199,000 if ETF demand accelerates.Bearish scenario: Weak equities could drag BTC to $64,000.ETF inflows now account for 40% of BTC price moves, per Citi.Citi Refines Bitcoin Price Model for 2025Wall Street giant Citi (C) has updated its Bitcoin price forecast, projecting BTC at $135,000 by year-end under its base case, and as high as $199,000 in its most bullish scenario.A more bearish setup — driven by soft equities and weaker macro conditions — pegs Bitcoin at just $64,000, according to the bank’s new report.What’s Driving Citi’s Bitcoin Forecast?Citi analysts identified three key drivers shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory:1- User Adoption: A projected 20% increase in user growth supports BTC around $75,000.2- Macroeconomic Conditions: Weak equity and gold performance subtract about $3,200 from BTC’s valuation.3- ETF Demand: Assumed $15 billion in additional ETF flows adds roughly $63,000 to Bitcoin’s price model.This combination produces the $135K base-case target.ETF Inflows Now Dominate BTC Price ActionSince U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, ETF flows have become a primary market driver.Citi estimates ETF flows now explain over 40% of BTC price variation.Institutional participation through ETFs, index inclusion, and regulatory clarity are increasingly important to Bitcoin’s valuation.Citi’s analysts added:“Bitcoin’s trajectory now depends as much on capital allocation strategies and investor flows as it does on technological adoption.”Upside Risk: ETF Demand Surging Faster Than ExpectedCiti notes that ETF inflows and user growth are running ahead of projections — a bullish tilt for BTC.ETF demand accelerating could push BTC past the $135K base case.Network effects are decaying slower than models predicted, strengthening long-term adoption.Bitcoin’s Price Scenarios by Year-EndBase case: $135,000Bullish case: $199,000Bearish case: $64,000With ETF demand driving over 40% of recent BTC moves, Citi’s bullish case assumes continued institutional accumulation — while the bearish case reflects macro weakness spilling into crypto markets, according to CoinDesk.