Odaily Planet Daily News Matrixport released a weekly report saying that Bitcoin has rebounded to the upper edge of the volatility range ($106,000). Driven by a number of favorable catalysts, the market generally expects it to break through the historical high. With the easing of phased downside risks, the upward path of Bitcoin prices has become clearer. The recent announcement that Trump's focus has shifted to attracting investment and trading cooperation has further boosted the market's optimism about the stock market and Bitcoin. If the tax cuts during the Trump era continue, coupled with potential deregulation measures, it may further boost market expectations for economic growth, drive a reassessment of growth prospects and a repricing of bond yields.
In the current context, risky assets, especially Bitcoin, are expected to usher in a favorable trading window before July. This period coincides with the end of the 90-day tariff truce, the start of the second quarter earnings season, and the expected peak of the liquidity indicators we track. Another important catalyst is FTX's upcoming debt repayment process, which is expected to start around May 30, 2025 for accounts with debt amounts exceeding US$50,000. This round of repayments is expected to issue about $5 billion in stablecoins, a considerable portion of which may flow back into the crypto market. This additional liquidity may drive market momentum in June, resonating with the continued inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs and the active trading of stablecoins.
Since Bitcoin broke through the $84,500 technical barrier in mid-April, it has always maintained a constructive bullish view. Although Bitcoin has risen by about $20,000 (about 25%), we still believe that the upward momentum is not exhausted and the market is expected to continue until the summer.